Investment 29/5/2026

The Hang Seng Index opened 97 points lower at 25,230 yesterday, and the decline once widened to 600 points, reaching a low of 24,727. It later narrowed its losses, closing down 322 points or 1.27% at 25,006. The Technology Index fell 18 points or 0.38% to 4,888. Total market turnover was HK$356.3 billion.

The escalating conflict between the US and Iran and the resulting geopolitical crisis triggered a surge in oil prices, leading to active selling of many large-cap technology stocks. In addition, it is rumored that E Fund's Hong Kong Securities ETF has reduced its holdings of seven Hong Kong-listed securities firms' H-shares, involving approximately HK$157 million, triggering market concerns about capital outflows from Hong Kong stocks. This put significant pressure on Hong Kong stocks on the futures settlement day, with the Hang Seng Index barely holding above the 25,000-point mark at the close. A rebound is expected today; unless it can return above the 25,650-point bull-bear dividing line, the market outlook will be weak. According to trend analysis: the Hang Seng Index rose from its intraday low of 14,794 points on January 22, 2024 to 28,056 points on January 29 this year, a cumulative increase of 13,262 points. If the Fibonacci retracement level is adjusted to 0.382, it may reach 22,986 points. 

The market turnover over the past three days has been high, primarily driven by selling. This is related to the mainland's requirement last Friday that domestic investors liquidate their holdings in overseas securities firms within two years. Given the current unfavorable market conditions in Hong Kong, mainland investors are selling early, exacerbating the decline in Hong Kong stocks and increasing turnover, particularly in the ATMXJ index, which is familiar to mainland investors. Only if the market turnover falls back to the HK$250 billion level will it reflect that the selling pressure may have subsided.

European stock markets softened, with the UK, French, and German stock markets closing down 0.75%, 0.23%, and 0.34%, respectively.

According to news website Axios, the US and Iran reached an agreement to extend the ceasefire for 60 days, but this still awaits approval from US President Trump. US stocks initially fell on Thursday but then stabilized, with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq both hitting intraday highs, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average closing at record highs. The Dow Jones Industrial Average opened 16 points higher, then fell as much as 329 points to a low of 50,314 before recovering. The S&P 500 rose as much as 0.64% to 7,568, while the Nasdaq Composite recovered as much as 0.98% from its low to 26,934.

At the close of trading, the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 24 points, or 0.04%, to 50,668; the S&P 500 gained 43 points, or 0.58%, to 7,563; and the Nasdaq Composite gained 242 points, or 0.91%, to 26,917.

The US dollar index fell as much as 0.26% to 98.95. The euro rose 0.32% to $1.1663, and the yen rose 0.24% to 159.12 against the dollar, following the European Central Bank's late April meeting minutes which showed that several officials did not oppose raising interest rates. Bitcoin fell 3.55% to a six-week low of $72,474.

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Investment 24/4/2026

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