Investment 30/3/2026

Geopolitical risks remain at a very high level. High oil prices and potential high inflation have hampered monetary policy, preventing interest rate cuts even if the economy deteriorates. Recent disappointing earnings reports have further weighed on market sentiment.


Last week, Hong Kong stocks failed to hold the 25,000 mark. The Hang Seng Index opened 87 points lower at 24,768, falling as much as 143 points to 24,712 before recovering somewhat, reaching a high of 25,095, a rise of 239 points. It closed up 95 points, or 0.38%, at 24,951; the technology index rose 16 points, or 0.34%, to 4,778. Total market turnover was HK$263 billion.


For the week, the Hang Seng Index fell 325 points, or 1.28%, marking its fourth consecutive week of decline, a cumulative drop of 1,678 points, or 6.43%.


If Hong Kong stocks continue their short-term rebound, the 20-day moving average (25,485) is expected to provide significant resistance during the decline. The Hang Seng Index has been trading sideways between 25,000 and 27,500 points for six months. In March, the market rose initially before falling, from a high of 26,403 points on the 2nd to a low of 24,203 points on the 23rd, meaning the intraday range has widened to 2,200 points. Last week, it initially broke below the bottom of the sideways trading range; if it cannot close above 25,000 points this week, the sideways trading pattern will be confirmed broken. If it falls below 24,203 points, the next support level is the neckline of the previous large double bottom at 22,740 points. For the market to escape its weakness, the primary condition is that the Hang Seng Index must cross and hold above the 250-day moving average (25,119), the dividing line between bull and bear markets.


European stock markets were under pressure across the board, with the UK, French, and German stock markets falling by 0.05%, 0.87%, and 1.38% respectively.


The situation in Iran fueled market anxiety, coupled with rising US long-term Treasury yields. The Dow Jones Industrial Average opened 55 points lower on Friday and then extended its losses to a maximum of 896 points, reaching a low of 45,063. The S&P 500 fell as much as 1.87%, and the Nasdaq Composite dropped as much as 2.33%. All three major indices closed near their intraday lows, with the Dow Jones down 10.5% from its recent high, following the Nasdaq into a technical correction. The VIX volatility index, commonly known as the "fear index," surged as much as 15.3% to 31.65.


At the close of trading, the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 793 points, or 1.75%, to 45,166; the S&P 500 fell 108 points, or 1.67%, to 6,368; and the Nasdaq Composite declined 459 points, or 2.15%, to 20,948.


The US dollar index rose as much as 0.31% to 100.21, while the euro fluctuated and fell 0.22% to $1.1502. The yen fell as much as 160.42 against the dollar, down 0.38%. Bitcoin fell as much as 5.2% to $65,532, while spot gold rebounded as much as 4.09% to $4,554.93 per ounce.

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Investment 24/4/2026

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