Investment 23/3/2026

The Hang Seng Index opened 163 points lower at 25,337, then briefly rose 63 points to 25,563 before falling again, dropping 379 points to 25,121, testing the support of the 250-day moving average (25,107), a key level separating bull and bear markets. It closed down 223 points or 0.87% at 25,277; the Technology Index fell 123 points or 2.48% to 4,872. Main board turnover was HK$342.5 billion.

The Hong Kong stock market outlook remains heavily influenced by several factors, including central bank monetary policy, the Middle East turmoil, and oil prices, all of which are weighing on market sentiment. Currently, the Hang Seng Index faces resistance at the 100-day moving average (26,237), and a retest of the previous low of 24,906 cannot be ruled out. In a weaker scenario: The Hang Seng Index rose a total of 13,262 points from its intraday low of 14,794 points on January 22, 2024, to 28,056 points on January 29, 2026. If the Fibonacci retracement level is adjusted to 0.382, the Hang Seng Index would reach 22,986 points. Medium- to long-term investors could consider buying the Tracker Fund of Hong Kong (ETF) in two tranches at 25,000 and 23,000 points. After President Reagan eliminated the communist Soviet Union, Trump's move to eradicate the "axis of evil" presents a good opportunity for the civilized world.

European stock markets were under pressure, with the UK, French, and German stock markets closing down 1.44%, 1.82%, and 2.01% respectively.

The Iran war has kept oil prices high, raising concerns about interest rate hikes by central banks worldwide. The probability of a Federal Reserve rate hike before the end of October is estimated at 50%. US stocks continued to be under pressure on Friday, with the Dow Jones opening 45 points lower and falling as much as 652 points to a low of 45,369. The S&P 500 fell as much as 2.01%, and the tech-heavy Nasdaq slipped as much as 2.57%. Friday was the "Quadruple Witching Day" for US stocks, the settlement day for futures and options on indices and individual stocks, involving contracts worth approximately $5.7 trillion. Historically, market conditions are generally volatile during this period.

U.S. stocks closed with the Dow Jones Industrial Average down 443 points, or 0.96%, to 45,577; the S&P 500 dropped 100 points, or 1.51%, to 6,506; and the Nasdaq Composite slipped 443 points, or 2.01%, to 21,647. Both the Dow and Nasdaq are technically nearing correction territory, which is defined as an index falling 10% or more from its recent high.

Last week, the Dow Jones Industrial Average retreated 2.1%, the S&P 500 fell 1.9%, and the Nasdaq Composite declined 2.1%.

The U.S. dollar index rose as much as 0.56% to 99.79, while the euro fell 0.54% to $1.1526, and the yen fell 1.07% to 159.39 per dollar. Bitcoin fell as much as 2.73% to $69,398. Spot gold prices fluctuated and fell 3.32% in late trading, closing at $4,496.51 per ounce.