Investment 19/3/2026

The Hang Seng Index opened 54 points higher at 25,923, then fell as much as 76 points to a low of 25,791 in the early session. Afternoon buying spurred a rise of 249 points to 26,117, closing up 156 points or 0.6% at 26,025, marking its third consecutive day of gains. The Technology Index rose less than 1 point or 0.01% to 5,108. Main board turnover was HK$240.3 billion.

The postponement of the meeting between the Chinese and US leaders, coupled with the possibility that US and Israeli actions against Iran may take longer than expected, is expected to keep oil prices volatile at high levels, impacting the overall market sentiment in Hong Kong. While the Hang Seng Index found technical support at the key level of 25,381, and even surpassed the 100-day moving average to reach 26,250 on Monday, it failed to hold above the 100-day moving average yesterday, indicating that the resistance level of 27,000 is difficult to break. The Hang Seng Index is expected to continue its sideways trading pattern.

The key to a positive outlook for Hong Kong stocks lies in whether the Hang Seng Index can break through and close above the 100-day moving average (26,248) for three consecutive days, with market turnover remaining between HK$250 billion and HK$300 billion. This would reflect overseas funds, particularly from the Middle East, flowing into Hong Kong as a safe haven amidst the turmoil. If these conditions are met, the index is expected to test 27,500 points in the third quarter, and could potentially challenge the 30,000-point mark for the whole year.

European stock markets declined across the board, with the UK, French, and German stock markets closing down 0.94%, 0.06%, and 0.96% respectively.

The escalation of the conflict in Iran spurred a sharp rise in international oil prices and triggered renewed concerns about global inflation. The US Federal Reserve announced that interest rates would remain unchanged, between 3.5% and 3.75%, and expects a reduction of only 0.25% for the whole year. Before the interest rate decision, the Dow Jones Industrial Average had already fallen more than 500 points. Subsequently, Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell stated at a press conference that progress in controlling inflation was not as good as the Fed had expected, and that internal discussions had begun regarding the possibility of an interest rate hike. This news further dragged down the Dow, causing it to plunge as much as 800 points to a low of 46,193.

At the close of trading, the Dow Jones Industrial Average was down 768 points, or 1.63%, at 46,225; the S&P 500 fell 91 points, or 1.36%, to 6,624; and the Nasdaq Composite dropped 327 points, or 1.46%, to 22,152.

The US dollar index was 100.18, against the Japanese yen 159.7; the euro was 0.87.