Investment 9/12/2025

The Hang Seng Index opened 17 points lower at 26,067, then briefly rose 66 points to 26,151 before selling pressure emerged, causing it to drop 329 points to 25,755. It closed down 319 points, or 1.22%, at 25,765. The technology index outperformed, rising less than 1 point to 5,662. Main board turnover was HK$206.2 billion.

The Hang Seng Index has fallen below its 100-DMA (25,834), and the next key support level to watch is the 150-DMA (25,143). In fact, the Hang Seng Index rose to a new bull market high of 27,381 in late September, then corrected to 25,145 before rebounding to 27,188, forming a double top pattern. If it breaks below the neckline of this double top at 25,145, the measured decline could reach at least the 250-DMA (23,686), a key level separating bull and bear markets, with a weaker scenario seeing a drop to 22,900 points.

This week, the market is focused on the US Federal Reserve's interest rate meeting. A rate cut is already expected; the most important factor is whether officials will adopt a hawkish or dovish stance, which will influence market sentiment. On the other hand, the Bank of Japan previously hinted at a rate hike, and the market has had almost two weeks to digest this, but the resulting volatility after the official announcement is still unpredictable. Investors are cautious, and Hong Kong stocks are unlikely to have upward momentum. In a rate-cutting environment, high-dividend stocks, such as bank stocks, telecommunications stocks, and resource stocks, could be considered.

European stock markets showed mixed performance, with the UK and French markets falling 0.23% and 0.08% respectively, while the German market rebounded 0.07%.

Amid anticipation of the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision this week, US stocks lacked clear direction on Monday. The Dow Jones Industrial Average opened 16 points higher but then fell as much as 343 points, hitting a low of 47,611. The S&P 500 rose 0.11% before falling as much as 0.63%, while the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite rose as much as 0.51% before falling as much as 0.52%.

At the close, the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 215 points, or 0.48%, to 47,739; the S&P 500 dropped 23 points, or 0.35%, to 6,846; and the Nasdaq Composite declined 32 points, or 0.14%, to 23,545.

The US dollar index rose as much as 0.24% to 99.23, the euro fell 0.24% to $1.1617, and the yen fell 0.4% to 155.99 per dollar. Bitcoin rose as much as 2.27% to $92,285 before falling back below $91,000.