Investment 1/8/2025

Amidst the uncertain outlook for US interest rates and the mainland's official manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) falling 0.4 points month-on-month in July, remaining in contraction territory for four consecutive months, Hong Kong stocks fell on the last trading day of July, falling below the 25,000 mark. The Hang Seng Index opened 194 points, or 0.77%, lower and quickly fell, plummeting as much as 432 points to 24,744. It ended the day down 403 points, or 1.6%, at 24,773, marking a three-day decline and a cumulative loss of 788 points, or 3.1%. The Tech Index briefly rebounded in early trading before closing down 37 points, or 0.69%, at 5,452, extending its six-day decline to a 292-point, or 5.1% drop. Main Board turnover exceeded HK$320.6 billion .


The Hang Seng Index rose 701 points, or 2.9%, in July, marking its third consecutive month of gains. The Tech Index rose 150 points, or 2.8%, in July, marking the third consecutive month of gains for both indices.


Yesterday, the Hang Seng Index held above its 20-DMA (24,720). The 50-DMA  (24,177) is a key support level. The Hong Kong stock market is currently in a short-term correction at a high level, expected to hover between 24,400 and 25,400 points. Watch for the upcoming US non-farm payroll data, which may reveal new signs of interest rate cut expectations. Due to active market liquidity, the Hong Kong stock market still has a chance to test higher in August, with a significant resistance level at 26,000 points. It is believed that the expectation of a rate cut and the start of the earnings season will provide momentum for undervalued Hong Kong stocks. However, if the Hang Seng Index falls below its 50-DMA, it could fall by at least 1,000 points to 23,000 points.


European stock markets came under pressure, with UK, French, and German stocks closing down 0.05%, 1.14%, and 0.81%, respectively.


Strong earnings from two major tech companies, Meta and Microsoft, led to a significant rebound in US stocks early Thursday. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq both hit their highs, but the three major indexes subsequently fell from their highs. The Dow Jones Industrial Average opened 204 points higher, reaching an intraday high of 44,665, before falling as much as 412 points in late trading, hitting a low of 44,049. The S&P 500 rose 1.01% to 6,427, while the Nasdaq rose 1.55% to 21,457.


At the close of trading, the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 330 points, or 0.74%, to 44,130; the S&P 500 gave up 23 points, or 0.37%, to 6,339; and the Nasdaq fell 7 points, or 0.03%, to 21,122.


For the month of July, the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 0.6%, the S&P 500 rose 2.8%, and the Nasdaq rose 4.1%.


The US dollar continued to strengthen, with the US dollar index rising for six consecutive days, at one point rising 0.29% to 100.101. The euro rose 0.49% to $1.1463. The Bank of Japan's reluctance to raise interest rates dragged the yen below 150 per dollar for the first time since early April, falling as much as 0.89% to 150.84. Bitcoin rose 1.51% to $118,916 before turning slightly lower.

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