Investment 3/1/2024

Mainland China's Caixin Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) slowed down in December and was worse than market expectations. The market is concerned about the mainland's sluggish growth. A-shares fell more than 3%, and the Shanghai Stock Exchange fell below 3,300 points, dragging down the Hong Kong stock market's weak start to the new year.  The Hang Seng Index opened 127 points lower at 19,932 points, which was already the day's high. Later, the decline expanded to 516 points and reached a low of 19,542 points. It fell 436 points or 2.17% to 19,623 points throughout the day. The Technology Index fell 110 points or 2.47%. It was quoted at 4,357 points.  Main board transaction volume was HK$164.7 billion.

 Hong Kong stocks closed above 20,000 points last year, with a cumulative gain of more than 3,000 points throughout the year.  At the end of last year, the Hong Kong stock market benefited from the window dressing effect. However, the recently released mainland economic data showed poor performance, reflecting the lack of economic growth momentum, which caused a significant retreat in the Hong Kong stock market. It is expected that the pattern of ups and downs will remain in the short term, with a range of 19,000 points to 20,000 points. level.  If the mainland introduces rescue policies in the future, such as interest rate cuts, reserve requirement ratio cuts and other measures, there may be opportunities to boost market confidence, but at the same time, we must pay attention to external factors, such as if the US President-elect Trump will raise the tariff issue again after taking office, and whether he will There are measures to impose sanctions on China.  In addition, the Federal Reserve is likely to slow down its interest rate cuts this year. Coupled with the strength of the US dollar and the weakening of the renminbi, this will also be detrimental to the trend of Hong Kong stocks.  The first half target of the Hang Seng Index is 21,100 points, and the overall market conditions are expected to become volatile and volatile.

 European stock markets performed well at the end of the day, with British and German stocks rising 1.07% and 0.58% respectively, while French stocks rebounded 0.18%.

 U.S. stocks rose first and then fell at the beginning of 2025. The market continued the sharp rise in the past two years and got off to a good start on the first trading day of 2025. After the Dow opened 115 points higher, the increase once expanded to a maximum of 360 points, reaching a high of 42,905. points, but encountered selling pressure at its highs and once fell 369 points to a low of 42,174 points; the S&P 50 reversed its four-day decline in the early stage and rebounded 0.91%, and then came under repeated pressure; the Nasdaq rose up to 1.07%, and then briefly Insert 1% upside down.

 At the close of U.S. stocks, the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 151 points, or 0.36%, to 42,392 points; the S&P Index fell 13 points, or 0.22%, to 5,868 points; and the Nasdaq fell 30 points, or 0.16%, to 19,280 points.

 The US dollar index once continued to rise by 0.96% to 109.53, rising for 7 consecutive days, the longest rising wave since October last year. The Japanese yen once rose by 0.51% to 156.44 per dollar.  The euro fell as much as 1.26% to $1.0226, its weakest since November 2022, and the pound plummeted 1.31% to an eight-month low of $1.2353.  The exchange rate of the Hong Kong dollar has strengthened in recent days, and it was closer to the strong side's exchange guarantee against the US dollar yesterday. The onshore RMB per 100 Hong Kong dollars hit a new high of 92.128 since 2007.