Investment 9/12/2024

Hong Kong stocks rebounded on Friday after falling for two days in a row.  After opening 51 points higher at 19,611 points, the Hang Seng Index expanded to 374 points during the session, reaching a high of 19,934 points. It rose 305 points, or 1.56%, to 19,865 points throughout the day; the Technology Index rose 94 points, or 2.16%, to 4,464 points.  Main board transaction volume was HK$162.7 billion.  Summarizing the whole week, it rose by 442 points or 2.28%, rising for two consecutive weeks.

 Investors are paying attention to whether more economic stimulus measures will be introduced at the important mainland meeting on Wednesday.  Since the Hang Seng Index has broken through the resistance of the 20-DMA (19,595), if it can rise above the top of the recent horizontal zone of 19,900 this week and stand firm above it, it will have a high chance of challenging the 20,000 level to complete the recent adjustment; otherwise, if it turns around and falls below last Friday's low of 19,566 to close , it is still a rampant situation.

 DBS reiterated its positive view on Hong Kong stocks, but considering that the Republican Party will take full power (Red Sweep) after the US election, which will reduce macro transparency, it lowered its base scenario target for the Hang Seng Index to 21,300 points, equivalent to 9.9 times next year's forecast price-earnings ratio.  DBS believes that China's policies to support the economy will help offset the potential impact of Trump 2.0. It recommends adopting a defensive strategy in the first half of next year, avoiding stocks with a heavy U.S. business, and focusing on high-quality growth stocks and beneficiaries. policy shares.  Under the "most bullish" and "most bearish" conditions, the Hang Seng Index is at 25,600 points and 16,000 points respectively. The expected probability of the two happening is 25% and 15% respectively.

 European stocks developed individually, with market concerns about the political situation in France temporarily relieved. French stocks rebounded 1.31%, German stocks rose 0.13%, and British stocks fell 0.49%.

 The U.S. unemployment rate increased by 0.1 percentage points to 4.2% in November, which was higher than expected and remained at 4.1%, raising expectations for the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates this month. U.S. stocks developed individually on Friday. After the Dow opened 58 points higher, the increase expanded to 158 points at most. , reached a high of 44,923, and then fell back from the high, once reaching a low of 44,596, a drop of 169 points; the S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite Index both set new record highs for the market and closing market. rose 0.82% to 19,863 points.

 At the close of the U.S. stock market, the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 123 points, or 0.28%, to 44,642 points; the S&P Index rose 15 points, or 0.25%, to 6,090 points; the Nasdaq rose 159 points, or 0.81%, to 19,859 points.  Cumulatively for the whole week, the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 0.6%, the S&P Index rebounded 0.96%, and the Nasdaq Index gained 3.3%. The S&P Index and Nasdaq Index also rose for the third consecutive week.

 The U.S. dollar index fell 0.28% to 105.42, and then rose 0.43% to a high of 106.16; the Euro fell as much as 0.44% to $1.0543; the yen rose 0.49% to 149.37 per dollar.  Bitcoin once rose 9.1% from its intraday low, breaking through $102,000.