Investment 7/11/2024

Investors are worried that Sino-US relations will become tense after Republican presidential candidate Trump returns to the White House, putting Hong Kong stocks under pressure.  The Hang Seng Index opened 215 points lower at 20,791 points and later fell 645 points to 20,361 points. It fell 468 points or 2.23% for the whole day to 20,538 points. The Technology Index fell 119 points or 2.54% to 4,574 points.  Main board transaction volume increased to HK$216.8 billion.


 It is expected that after Trump takes office, the United States will begin to invest heavily in infrastructure, vigorously develop cryptocurrency, reconstruct the financial system, close bloated government departments, reduce the power of the Federal Reserve, restore manufacturing, strengthen agricultural production, build high-speed rail, highways, and old cities. Transform, support Musk’s Mars plan, restore conservative national values, close borders, expel illegal immigrants, start to increase taxes on other countries, and charge additional service fees for those who need protection.  The rivalry between China and the United States will intensify in the short term, and related sectors should be avoided temporarily, including automobile stocks, chip stocks, biopharmaceutical stocks and export stocks.  In addition, Trump had earlier stated that he was confident of resolving the Russia-Ukraine war as quickly as possible, which may put pressure on oil prices.  The short-term fluctuations of the Hang Seng Index may increase, with support at 19,700 to 20,100 points at the bottom and resistance at 21,000 points at the top.


 In European stock markets, British, French and German stocks fell 0.07%, 0.51% and 1.13% respectively.  Asia-Pacific stock markets were led by exports and banks, and Japanese stocks were strong. The Nikkei Stock Average soared 2.61%, but the South Korean stock market fell 0.52%.


 Pro-business Republican candidate Trump returned to the White House, spurring the three major U.S. stock indexes to peak on Wednesday and hit record highs.  After the Dow opened 628 points higher, the gain expanded to a maximum of 1,556 points, reaching a high of 43,778 points. The S&P 500 once rose 2.65% to 5,936 points. The Nasdaq, which is dominated by technology stocks, once rose 3.04% to 19,000 points.


 At the close of U.S. stocks, the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 1,508 points, or 3.57%, to 43,729 points; the S&P Index rose 146 points, or 2.53%, to 5,929 points; and the Nasdaq Composite rose 544 points, or 2.95%, to 18,983 points.


 The market expects that Trump's re-election may affect the pace of interest rate cuts by the US Federal Reserve, and the US dollar will show strength.  The U.S. dollar index rose 1.5% to 105.04; the Japanese yen fell 1.6%, and the offshore RMB fell below the 7.15 level.

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