Investment 26/11/2024

After the Hang Seng Index opened 77 points higher at 19,307 points, it rose 121 points to 19,351 points, and then fell back. It once fell 127 points to 19,102 points. It fell 78 points or 0.41% for the whole day to 19,150 points, recording three consecutive losses; Technology index fell 10 points, or 0.25%, to 4,235 points. The MSCI index adjustment took effect, and the main board turnover increased to HK$183.2 billion.

 The investment sentiment in Hong Kong stocks has deteriorated, with the Hang Seng Index falling below the important support of 19,300 points last week. We are currently in a policy vacuum, the market lacks speculation themes, and investment sentiment is cautious. In addition, the exchange rate of the US dollar has strengthened, and non-US currencies such as the renminbi have come under pressure, which has also dragged down the performance of Hong Kong stocks. The trading volume of the market also weakened, and the Hang Seng Index rebounded weakly. After falling below 19,300 points, it may further test 19,000 points. If it falls below again, it may even have a chance to test 18,400 points. Unless there is a significant turnaround in the market and the index stabilizes at 19,800 points, investors still lack confidence in entering the market and should not be too aggressive.

 UBS pointed out that the current equity risk premium (ERP) of the Hang Seng Index and MSCI Hong Kong Index is higher than the historical average. The market has not fully reflected the geopolitical challenges of Trump's upcoming return to power. The Hang Seng Index's price-to-earnings ratio is expected to further increase from the current 8.9 times. It will drop to 8.1 times by the end of next year, and it will reach 20,000 points next year. but. China and Hong Kong stocks are less directly affected by the U.S. tariffs, but will be indirectly affected by the weakening of the overall economy.

 European stock markets performed well, with British and German stocks closing about 0.4% higher, and French stocks rebounding slightly by 0.03%.

 The new U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent will cautiously implement the "America First" policy, which will help reduce the shock to the market. Investors breathed a sigh of relief, and U.S. stocks rose significantly on Monday. After opening 88 points higher, the Dow climbed up to 519 points, hitting a new record high of 44,815 points, and closed at a record high; the S&P 500 also broke through the top, once rising 0.86% to 6,020 points; the Nasdaq, which is dominated by technology stocks, It had risen 1.08%.

 At the close of the U.S. market, the Dow soared 440 points, or 0.99%, to 44,736 points; the S&P 500 rose 18 points, or 0.3%, to 5,987 points; the Nasdaq rose 51 points, or 0.27%, to 19,054 points.

 The U.S. dollar index fell as much as 0.9% to 106.583; the euro rebounded 1.08%, reaching a high of $1.053; the yen rose 0.79% to 153.55 per dollar.

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