Investment 15/11/2024

On the first "turbulent" trading day for the Hong Kong stock market, the Hang Seng Index opened 197 points lower at 19,626 points and once rose 35 points to 19,859 points. Afterwards, selling pressure reappeared and fell 430 points in the afternoon, reaching a low of 19,392 points. It closed down 387 points or 1.95% for the whole day to 19,435 points, falling for the fifth consecutive trading day and falling below the 50-DMA (19,805). The technology index fell 137 points or 3.08% to 4,318 points and fell 20 points from its October high. %, falling into a technical bear market.  Main board transaction volume was HK$173.2 billion.

 U.S. inflation data last month were generally in line with expectations. After the data was released, market expectations for an interest rate cut in December increased.  In fact, the market is waiting to see whether Trump will stick to the many policies and actions proposed during the campaign after he takes office as President of the United States next year, and its impact on inflation and even the direction of interest rates.  Although the U.S. dollar is weak in the medium and long term, it still has upward momentum in the short term, and non-U.S. currencies, including the RMB, are under depreciation pressure.  Hong Kong stocks are not affected much by the external environment for the time being, but the economic stimulus measures announced by the Mainland last week disappointed the market, and investors are worried that Sino-US trade relations may become tense again. The Hang Seng Index may be further pressured in the short term, but I believe the 100-DMA (18,661) There is support.

 European stock markets performed well, with British, French and German stocks rising 0.51%, 1.32% and 1.37% respectively.

 The U.S. producer price index (PPI) accelerated to 2.4% year-on-year in October from 1.9% in September, exceeding expectations of a 2.3% rise. Federal Reserve Chairman Powell stated that he believed the authorities should not rush to raise interest rates.  U.S. stocks rose first and then recovered on Thursday. After the Dow opened 74 points higher, the increase expanded to 122 points, reaching a high of 44,080 points, and then fell. It had fallen back more than 200 points before Powell's speech. After Powell's speech, the Dow's decline once expanded to 253 points. , hitting an intraday low of 43,704 points; the S&P 500 had fallen 0.72%, and the Nasdaq, which is dominated by technology stocks, fell at most 0.82%.

 U.S. stocks closed at 43,750 points, down 207 points or 0.47%; the S&P 500 fell 36 points or 0.6% to 5,949 points; the Nasdaq fell 123 points or 0.64% to 19,107 points.

 The U.S. exchange rate index once rose 0.55% to 107.064; the currency market is betting that the European Central Bank has a 25% chance of cutting interest rates by 0.5% next month. The Euro once fell to $1.05, a drop of 0.62% to as low as $1.0499; the yen also fell 0.6 %, to 156.42 per dollar.

 Bitcoin continued to fluctuate sharply, reaching a record high of US$93,462 on Wednesday (13th), and then retreated below US$90,000. On Thursday, it rose another 3.44% to nearly US$91,700, and then fell by more than 1%, falling to below $88,000.