Investment 22/7/2024

The Hang Seng Index opened 174 points lower at 17,603. The decline was once reduced to 148 points, hitting 17,629 points. It then sold out throughout the day, falling as much as 402 points to a low of 17,376, hitting a three-month low since April 26 and falling below 250-DMA , the Bull-Bear Line (17,475) narrowed in the afternoon, but was restrained by the Bull-Bear Line. The Hang Seng Index finally closed at 17,417, down 360 points or 2%, the lowest closing price in the past three months since April 25; it fell all week. 875 points or 4.78%. The technology index fell 76 points, or 2.12%, to 3,536 points; it fell 6.5% for the whole week. Main board transaction volume was HK$102 billion.

 The Hang Seng Index has begun to fall since its high of 18,317 points on July 12. It reached a low of 17,376 points last Friday, falling below the commonly used average moving lines of various groups, showing a pattern of repeatedly bottoming out, and may test the psychological mark of 17,000 points. If there short-term rebound, the 250-DMA has resistance. 

The mainland's second-quarter growth was weaker than expected, and coupled with the weak consumer market, it is believed that it will be difficult to achieve the 5% economic growth target this year. On the other hand, given the cautious attitude of investors entering the market, the mainland property market has not shown improvement, and will drag down other economic activities, and corporate profits may be further reduced. In addition, the concept of special valuations that was popular earlier has also declined, reflecting signs of capital outflows. Therefore, the upward momentum of China and Hong Kong stock markets is weak. 

European stock markets were soft, with British and French stocks also closing about 0.6% lower, and German stocks falling 1%.

 CrowdStrike, a network security service provider, discovered a vulnerability when upgrading its software, causing a Microsoft Windows system failure and causing computer "crash", disrupting global business operations and public services, and weakening the market sentiment. U.S. stocks were under pressure again on Friday, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average opening lower at 72 After 10 points, it fell as much as 461 points to a low of 40,203 points; the S&P 500 index fell 0.86%, and the Nasdaq Composite Index, which is dominated by technology stocks, once fell 1.01%. 

At the close of U.S. stocks, the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell slightly to 377 points, or 0.93%, to 40,287 points; the S&P 500 fell 0.71% to 5,505 points; the Nasdaq fell 0.81% to 17,726 points. 

The U.S. dollar index once fell as low as 103.66 and started to fall from around 106.1 before. Seasonal weakness in U.S. data and rising expectations of interest rate cuts will drag down U.S. dollar forecasts. However, the short-term U.S. election may be the main factor that dominates the performance of the U.S. dollar. With the market fully anticipating a U.S. interest rate cut in September, the current election situation, which is more favorable to market expectations for Trump's victory, may push the dollar higher, and it may test 105.8 within 3 months.