Investment 3/6/2024

After opening 179 points higher at 18,409 points last Friday, the Hang Seng Index once rose 320 points to 18,551 points. However, it then fell repeatedly and turned negative. It closed down 150 points or 0.82% for the whole day at 18,079 points, falling for the fourth consecutive trading day. . The technology index fell 62 points, or 1.65%, to 3,690 points. Main board transaction volume was HK$191.7 billion. 


The increase in bill payment for the whole month was only 316 points or 1.78%, which almost completely evaporated the increase in the first half of May. However, it finally rose for 4 consecutive months, with a total revenue of 2,594 points or 16.75%. The Hang Seng Index rose to the recent high of 19,706 and was unable to advance further. It fell below the 18,500 mark with a large black candlestick. The short-term trend has weakened, but the 50-DMA (17,629) is expected to be supportive. The Hang Seng Index rose from 16,044 to 19,706, accumulating 3,662 points. Last week, the fibo has been adjusted to 0.382. If the fibo is lowered to 0.618, the adjustment target will be 17,442, which is expected to have stronger support. Morgan Stanley maintains the basic target for the Hang Seng Index in June next year at 19,150 points, equivalent to 9 times the forecast price-earnings ratio, which means the potential increase in the next 12 months is only 5.92%. 


Looking ahead to June, pay attention to the Federal Reserve's interest rate meeting, and you can speculate on the direction of interest rates through its dot plot. Hong Kong stocks are gradually losing momentum and continue to adjust. In the short term, we should pay attention to two major factors. The first is whether the US PCE (Personal Consumption Expenditure Price Index) data will show that inflation is under control. The second is the trend of the RMB. If it continues to be weak, it will be detrimental to Hong Kong stocks. If U.S. inflation is under control and there will be room for one interest rate cut this year, the situation of the Hong Kong stock market may not be too bad. 


The three major U.S. stock indexes performed well last week, rising for two consecutive weeks. The Dow closed up 574 points at 38,686 points; the S&P 500 rose 42 points at 5,277 points; the Nasdaq fell 2 points to 16,735 points. For the whole week, the Dow rose nearly 0.7%, the Nasdaq rose nearly 2.4%, and the S&P 500 rose 1.3%. 


This week's focus includes the rating agency Moody's downgrading of the U.S. rating outlook to negative, which will have an impact on the market; performance and economic data mainly focus on retail sales. Retail stocks such as Walmart, Home Depot, Target and Tyson Foods will announce results; other performance stocks include Cisco and Applied Materials. 


The market expects that the U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) released on Tuesday will slow down to 0.1% and 3.3% on a monthly basis and 3.3% on a year-on-year basis, while the core CPI will maintain a monthly and year-on-year increase of 0.3% and 4.1% respectively. Retail sales in October are expected to fall by 0.1% on a monthly basis, which would be the first decline since March. Data on October import and export prices, industrial production, new housing starts and building approvals will also be released this week.

 

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