Investment 7/5/2024

A-shares closed higher, Beishui returned, and Hong Kong stocks continued their rising trend. The Hang Seng Index opened 12 points higher at 18,488 points and then simmered. The gains expanded in the afternoon and tested the 18,600 point level. It closed up 102 points or 0.55% at 18,578 points, rising for the 10th consecutive trading day, with a cumulative gain of 2,354 points in the 10th day. or 14.5%; the technology index rose 36 points, or 0.91%, to 4,007 points. Main board transaction volume was HK$144.4 billion. The net buying of Southbound Trading was HK$5.086 billion , and the net buying of Chinese funds for 23 consecutive days reached a total of HK$100.338 billion .

 The U.S. non-farm payrolls data for April was far worse than expected, with the unemployment rate rising to 3.9%, raising expectations for an interest rate cut again, which is good for the mood of U.S. stocks. As for the sharp rise in Hong Kong stocks, the Hang Seng Index reached 18,604 points last week, the highest level since September last year. However, as the market has accumulated a lot of gains and is technically overbought, it is believed that in the short term it may need to consolidate at the current level before it can move higher again. Investors can wait until the adjustment is completed, that is, the overbought signal improves, before entering the market. The short-term target can be 18,747 points; the mid-line target is 19,650 points. Looking at the most optimistic scenario, the Hang Seng Index's low in October 2022 and the low in January this year form a head-and-shoulders bottom pattern, with the neckline at 22,500 and rising above the neckline. The long-term ultimate target is 30,500 (?). 

European stock markets remained stable, with French and German stock markets closing higher by 0.49% and 0.96% respectively, and the British market was closed for the early May bank holiday. 

The U.S. April inflation data released on the 15th of this month will be the key to the U.S. stock market outlook and the direction of the Federal Reserve interest rate. After data on Friday showed a slowdown in the U.S. job market, some traders expected the Federal Reserve to start cutting interest rates as soon as September. Expectations for the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates have increased again, and U.S. bond interest rates have fallen for days. U.S. stocks performed well on Monday. After opening 86 points higher, the Dow Jones Industrial Average expanded to 210 points, reaching a high of 38,886 points. Later, most of the gains evaporated, rising only 13 points. , as low as 38,689 points; the S&P 500 rose 1.04%; the Nasdaq rose 1.2% at most.

 At the close of the U.S. stock market, the Dow Jones Industrial Average's gain shrank to 176 points, or 0.46%, to 38,852 points; the S&P Index rose 52 points, or 1.03%, to 5,180 points; and the Nasdaq Composite rose 192 points, or 1.19%, to 16,349 points. 

The US dollar index once fell 0.16% to 104.867; the yen once fell below 154 per dollar, reaching a low of 154.01, down 0.63%. The Bank of England is expected to maintain interest rates at a 16-year high in its interest rate meeting this week and may provide a clearer signal on the prospect of interest rate cuts. The pound rose 0.38%, reaching a high of $1.2595.