Investment 14/5/2024

After opening 59 points lower at 18,904 points, the Hang Seng Index once fell 136 points to 18,827 points. It then turned from decline to rise and rose as much as 159 points to 19,123 points, a nine-month high. It closed up 151 points or 0.79% at 19,115 points. points, rising for the third consecutive trading day; the technology index rose 56 points, or 1.42%, to 4,018 points. Main board transaction volume was HK$147.2 billion. 


The market is looking forward to the dividend tax reduction for Southbound Trading. Although the relevant policies have not yet been implemented, funds are actively flowing in, and the rise in Hong Kong stocks is expected to be sustainable. In the short term, it is advisable to continue to pay attention to policy news and the results announced by blue chip stocks, but the market is expected to continue to trend upward. 


Hong Kong stocks are overbought, and there will be adjustments in the short term. However, after consolidation, the Hang Seng Index has a chance to test 19,650 points. The lower support is last Friday's rising gap (18,560 to 18,657). Looking at the market outlook for an optimistic scenario: the Hang Seng Index’s low in October 2022 and the low in January this year formed a head and shoulders bottom pattern, with the neckline at 22,500, which can be used as a midline target. If it can rise above the neckline, the long-term ultimate target is 30,500 (?). However, the chances of achieving this goal are slim unless the international situation changes drastically. 


European stock markets came under pressure, with British, French and German stocks falling by 0.22%, 0.12% and 0.16% respectively.


 Before the U.S. released inflation data on Wednesday, consumers expected inflation to accelerate in the next year. U.S. stocks performed individually on Monday. After the Dow opened 78 points higher, the increase once expanded to a maximum of 134 points, reaching a high of 39,647 points, and then fell 109 points to a low See 39,403 points. The S&P 500 index rose by 0.28%, and the Nasdaq Composite Index, which is dominated by technology stocks, rose by up to 0.4%. 


At the close of the U.S. market, the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 81 points, or 0.21%, to 39,431 points, ending its winning streak in the past eight trading days; the S&P 500 fell 1 point, 0.02%, to 5,221 points; the Nasdaq rose 47 points, 0.29%, to 16,388 points. . 


The U.S. exchange rate index once fell 0.23% to 105.055; the yen once fell 0.36% to 156.31 per dollar; the euro rose as much as 0.33% to $1.081.

 

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