Investment 10/5/2024

The Hang Seng Index opened 7 points lower at 18,306 points, and then resumed its upward trend. It once rose 246 points to 18,560 points, and closed up 223 points, or 1.22%, at 18,537 points for the whole day, ending the two-day decline; the technology index rose 75 points or 1.94%, reported at 3,947 points. Main board transaction volume was HK$123.6 billion. 

 Hong Kong stocks have been rising sharply in recent days. The Hang Seng Index reached a high of 18,638 points on Tuesday, the highest since September last year. It rebounded more than 2,000 points from its low point and technically entered overbought. However, after two days of adjustment, the overbought signal improved and it rebounded yesterday. Investors are still waiting to see where the U.S. interest rates will go and whether the mainland will introduce more policies to support the economy. It is believed that more good news will be needed for the market to have a chance to rise further. The short-term target can be 18,747 points; the mid-line target is 19,650 points. Looking at the most optimistic scenario, the Hang Seng Index's low in October 2022 and the low in January this year form a head-and-shoulders bottom pattern, with the neckline at 22,500 and rising above the neckline. The long-term ultimate target is 30,500 (?). However, the chance of rising above the neckline is slim unless the international situation changes drastically. 

European stock markets performed well, with British, French and German stocks closing up 0.33%, 0.69% and 1.02% respectively. 

The U.S. job market is cooling, with the largest number of new jobless claims in nine months, which may create favorable conditions for the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates later this year. After opening slightly higher by 7 points, the Dow once turned around and fell 67 points to a low of 38,988 points. It turned upward and rose by as much as 357 points near the close, reaching a high of 39,413 points. It still rose by 331 points or 0.85% to 3,9387 points at the close, rising for 7 consecutive trading days. The S&P 500 index rose 26 points, or 0.51%, and hit 5,200 points again, at 5,214 points; the Nasdaq, which is dominated by technology stocks, rebounded 43 points, or 0.27%, to 16,346 points.

 The U.S. dollar index fell as much as 0.32% to 105.251; the yen continued to fall by 0.27% to 155.94 per dollar. The Bank of England hinted that the pace of interest rate cuts may be faster than expected. The pound once fell 0.42% to $1.2446, but then recovered its losses and rose 0.23% to $1.2526.