Investment 5/4/2024

Hong Kong stocks fell overnight on Wednesday, and the market turned cautious on the eve of the Ching Ming Festival holiday. After Hong Kong stocks soared 390 points at the start of April, the Hang Seng Index gave up more than half of its gains, with turnover shrinking to less than HK$ 100 billion . The Hang Seng Index opened 4 points lower in the morning and closed at 16,926, which was already the day's high. Due to the lack of performance of technology stocks, the market fell. The decline further expanded in the afternoon, once falling below 16,700, falling as much as 242 points, reaching a low of 16,689, and closing at 16,725 points for the whole day, down 206 points or 1.2%; the technology index closed at 3,460, down 82 points or 2.3%. Trading volume in the market was quiet, with the full-day turnover shrinking to HK$99.7 billion, down more than 30% from the previous day. 

For the Hong Kong stock market to maintain the trend of the Hang Seng Index hovering between 16,000 and 17,000, it must firmly hold the 100-DMA (16,547). Once it falls, it will continue to find the bottom. 

European stock markets developed individually, with British and German stock markets rising 0.48% and 0.19% respectively, while French stocks fell slightly by 0.02%. 

The return of U.S. bond interest rates from high levels has led to the performance of large-scale technology stocks. U.S. stocks rose significantly on Thursday. After the Dow opened sharply higher by 216 points on Thursday, the increase expanded to 294 points, with a maximum of 39,421 points. It fell sharply at the end, reaching a maximum of 39,421 points. It once fell by 567 points, reaching a low of 38,559 points; the S&P 500 once rose 0.87%, and the Nasdaq rose as much as 1.17%. The three major indexes eventually fell by more than 1% and closed close to the day's lows. The reason was that oil prices continued to rise, and Brent oil futures exceeded the psychological mark of US$90 per barrel, triggering concerns about rising inflation. 

At the close of the U.S. market, the Dow fell 530 points, or 1.35%, to 38,596 points; the S&P 500 dropped 64 points, or 1.23%, to 5,147 points; the Nasdaq fell 228 points, or 1.4%, to 16,049 points. 

The yen continues to be weak, and the risk of intervention by the Japanese authorities has increased. The market expects the Bank of Japan to take action at the 152 level. However, Bank of America believes that before the Federal Reserve starts to cut interest rates, the Bank of Japan's intervention to support the yen is unlikely to be effective. If the Federal Reserve does not cut interest rates, the yen may fall to 160 against the US dollar at most.

 The U.S. dollar index fell as much as 0.32% to 103.915, and the yen fell 0.31% to 151.22 per dollar. Minutes of the European Central Bank's interest rate meeting showed that officials last month believed that progress in improving inflation was encouraging, indicating that the case for cutting interest rates was strengthening. However, the euro still rose 0.39% to $1.0878.