Investment 15/4/2024

The mainland's foreign trade performance last month was worse than market expectations, and Hong Kong stocks further bottomed out in late trading. The Hang Seng Index opened 116 points lower at 16,978 points and continued its decline. It closed at the day's low of 16,721 points, down 373 points or 2.18%, slightly down 2 points for the week; the Technology Index fell 63 points or 1.8% to 3,474 points. Main board transaction volume was HK$106.2 billion. 

The market is worried that the mainland will fall into deflation again, and it still needs to wait and see whether the data will improve further. Therefore, although the recent technical trend of Hong Kong stocks has improved, it has still failed to rise above the important resistance of the last high of 17,214 points. After the performance period, the performance of stocks was polarized. Resource stocks, oil stocks and Chinese telecommunications stocks continued to remain strong. Technology and Internet stocks such as Meituan and Tencent also saw improvements. However, some stocks, such as AIA, were relatively weak after performance. With the differentiation between strong and weak stocks, it is difficult for Hong Kong stocks to see a clear direction. You may wish to pick strong stocks for speculation. If the Hang Seng Index rises above the resistance of 17,214 points, I believe that strong stocks will further break through by then, driving the Hang Seng Index to the 250-DMA (17,866) level. According to an earlier forecast by Standard Chartered, Hong Kong stocks may rise to 18,100 points on the Hang Seng Index in the next 12 months. 

European stock markets developed individually. Led by oil and mining stocks, British stocks rose 0.91%, while French and German stocks both fell more than 0.1%.

 The situation in the Middle East took a turn for the worse. The market was worried about a head-on conflict between Israel and Iran. U.S. stocks came under significant pressure on Friday. After the Dow opened 139 points lower, it then surged 581 points to a low of 37,877 points. The S&P 500 index fell as much as 1.75%, led by technology. The stock-heavy Nasdaq fell 1.93%. , the U.S. stock market closed with the Dow still down 475 points, or 1.24%, at 37,983 points; the S&P Index fell 75 points, or 1.46%, at 5,123 points; the Nasdaq fell 267 points, or 1.62%, at 16,175 points.

 All three major U.S. stock indexes posted declines for the second consecutive week. The Dow fell for a fifth straight session. Investors are paying close attention to the outlook for Federal Reserve policy and geopolitical tensions in the Middle East. The CEOs of JPMorgan Chase and BlackRock both expressed concerns about inflationary pressures in the United States. The CBOE Volatility Index (VIX), commonly known as the "fear gauge," surged. The VIX typically falls when the broader market rises and spikes when stocks plunge. 

The U.S. dollar index rose 0.79% to 106.11, and the yen rose 0.44% to 152.59 per dollar. The British economy grew by 0.1% in February, in line with expectations, and has risen for two consecutive months. However, the pound still fell 1% to US$1.2427, and the euro fell by up to 0.96% to US$1.0623, a five-month low.