Investment 21/3/2024

The Hang Seng Index opened slightly higher by 29 points yesterday and reached 16,559 points. It fell 99 points in the early stage and retested the 16,400 point level. It then stopped falling and rebounded, rising by up to 124 points to the day's high of 16,654 points, and finally closed at 16,543 points. Up 13 points or 0.08%. The technology index closed at 3,551 points, up 22 points or 0.7%. The market's full-day turnover fell to HK$85.3 billion. 


Because the previous inflation data in the United States were higher than expected, if the Federal Reserve is determined to start cutting interest rates in June, inflation may have a chance to rebound. The Hong Kong stock market has entered its performance peak period, and investors are also waiting to see the results of listed companies. The trend in the past month can be described as "volatile but not rising." The market is expected to maintain an ups and downs pattern. The short-term support for the Hang Seng Index is at 15,000 points. If it can be 16,500 points are stable, and I believe there is a chance of reaching 17,000 points before the end of this month. 


European stock markets had mixed trends, with French stocks falling 0.48%, dragged down by luxury goods stocks; British stocks fell slightly by 0.01%, and German stocks rose 0.15%. 


After the U.S. Federal Reserve discussed interest rates, it announced that it would keep interest rates unchanged. The interest rate dot plot shows that it will cut interest rates three times by the end of this year, by 0.25% each time, which is consistent with the forecast in December last year. The median forecast for year-end interest rates remains unchanged at 4.6%. The median forecast for interest rates by the end of 2025 increased to 3.9%. The U.S. dollar index rose as much as 0.7% to 104.15, and then turned slightly lower.


 After the Bank of Japan ended its negative interest rate policy, the yen continued to fall, falling below 151 per dollar, once falling 0.66% to 151.86, the weakest in four months; the euro against the yen reached a new high since 2008, reaching a high of 164.74 yen, up 0.5% .


 The Bank of England announced the results of its interest rate meeting on Thursday. The pound once fell 0.38%, as low as $1.2684, and then rose 0.47% to $1.2783. The Euro once fell 0.29% to $1.0837, and then rose 0.5% to $1.0922. European Central Bank President Lagarde said at a meeting that she could not promise to further lower interest rates after a possible interest rate cut in June, emphasizing that the policy will continue follow the data. 


Before the announcement of the interest rate meeting results, U.S. stocks developed individually on Wednesday. After opening lower, the Dow Jones Industrial Average's decline once expanded to 122 points, reaching a low of 38,988 points, and then fluctuated in narrow ranges. The S&P 500 once fell by 0.13%, and the Nasdaq fell by as much as 0.24%. After the interest rate meeting results were announced, U.S. stocks rose sharply, and the three major indexes all hit new closing highs: the Dow once rose 418 points, reaching a high of 39,529 points, and closed still up 401 points, or 1.03%, at 39,512 points; the S&P 500 rose 46 points or 0.89%, reported at 5,224 points; the Nasdaq rose 202 points or 1.25%, reported at 16,369 points. 


[Federal Reserve Dot Plot]

 

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