Investment 18/3/2024

The February PPI and CPI inflation data released one after another in the United States were both higher than expected. Market expectations for an early interest rate cut cooled, and U.S. stocks closed lower overnight. After Hong Kong stocks fell below 17,000, they continued to search for the bottom. After the Hang Seng Index opened 203 points lower, dragged down by heavyweight technology and Internet stocks, the decline expanded, with a maximum loss of 411 points to 16,550 points. It finally closed at 16,720 points for the whole day, although it fell 240 points or 1.4%, falling for three consecutive days. The HS Technology index underperformed the market and closed at 3,549 points, down 53 points or 1.5%. Market turnover increased to HK$139 billion , maintaining the level of 100 billion . 

For the week, the Hang Seng Index rose by 367 points, ending its two-week losing streak; the Technology Index rose by 164 points. 

The Hang Seng Index closed maintained its 100-DMA (16,620) . The Hang Seng Index is not too bearish on Hong Kong stocks in the short term. The structural inflection point bottom of the Hang Seng Index has been established at 14,794 points on January 22. The short-term good and weak boundary of the 100-DMA has been tested, but it is still stable. There is resistance at 17,400 points. Short-term adjustments should not fall below the 50-DMA (16,165), which means a short-term upward trajectory, otherwise it may have to test the 15,200 to 15,000 area. If the Hang Seng Index rises above the composite head and shoulders bottom and neck line in the market outlook, it is expected to test the 250-DMA (18,069), which is the dividing line between bulls and bears, with a mid-line upward target of 19,000 points.

 Inflation in the United States was higher than expected last month, and the market is concerned about whether the Federal Reserve will delay the interest rate cut schedule. The U.S. election in November may have used news of interest rate cuts to boost the economy and build momentum for the election. It is believed that there is a greater chance of two interest rate cuts before the election, and the June interest rate cut may be maintained. Although the U.S. stock market has been undergoing correction in the short term, the "Seven Sisters" of technology stocks (Apple, Microsoft, Alphabet, Amazon, Nvidia, Tesla, and Meta) are still hitting new highs. Only Nvidia, the chip chip that had been rising strongly earlier, has made profits. After taking some losses, the overall market conditions are expected to remain good. 

European stock markets developed individually, with British and German stocks falling 0.2% and 0.03%, while French stocks edged up 0.04%. 

The latest economic data released in the United States are mixed. In addition, Friday (15th) is the "fourth settlement day" for U.S. stocks. Market conditions are generally more volatile. The Dow opened 96 points lower and then fell repeatedly, falling as much as 287 points and as low as 38,618. points, the closing decline narrowed slightly to 190 points, or 0.49%, to 38,714 points; the S&P 500 fell 33 points, or 0.65%, to 5,117 points; the Nasdaq, which is dominated by technology stocks, fell 155 points, or 0.96%, to 15,973 points. 

Major Asian stock markets closed lower last week. Japan's Nikkei 225 index closed down 99 points, or 0.26%, at 38,707 points. The U.S. exchange rate index rose 0.16% repeatedly to 103.49; the Bank of Japan is on track to end its negative interest rate policy, but the yen has fallen for four consecutive days, falling by up to 0.57% to 149.16 per dollar.