Investment 14/2/2024

Hong Kong stocks were only open for half a day on the closing day of the Year of the Rabbit. Investors were selling before the long holiday. After opening 168 points lower, the Hang Seng Index fell as much as 347 points to a low of 15,531 points. After that, there were buyers to take advantage of the low and closed at 15,746 points, down 131 points or 0.83%. The technology index closed at 3,127 points, down 41 points or 1.3%. The main board's total trading volume for the whole day was only HK$31.2 billion.

 Investors in Hong Kong stocks were "trapped" in the Year of the Rabbit. The Hang Seng Index fell 6,298 points, or 28.5%, for the whole year, which was the worst performance in the Year of the Rabbit in history. The technology Index fell 1,441 points, or 31.5%. 

The trend of Hong Kong stocks after he Lunar New Year holiday. Looking back on the performance of the past few years, Hong Kong stocks tend to reach short-term highs after the holidays and before the A-share market resumes after the holiday. In addition, the US stock market adjusted sharply yesterday. Therefore, it is not appropriate to be too optimistic when the red market opens higher. In terms of trend, the Hang Seng Index is still in a downward channel. In the short term, it will have to rise above the 50-DMA (16,205) before it is expected to turn around. However, if it falls below the 20-DMA (15,708) for several consecutive days, the market situation may weaken, and then the trend will turn around. The market is expected to test the 15,000 level again, and even retest the bear market low of 14,597 points in October last year.

The Japanese stock market reached a higher level after the resumption of trading on Tuesday. The Nikkei Stock Average once reached a high of 38,010 points and closed at 37,963 points, up 1,066 points or 2.89%. It was the strongest day since November 2022 and hit a new high in more than 34 years. It is less than 3% away from the historical closing high of 38,915 points and the historical intraday high of 38,957 points set on December 29, 1989, the eve of the Japanese bubble explosion. 

 European stock markets fell across the board, with British and French stocks both closing down about 0.8%, and German stocks falling 0.92%.

 The latest inflation in the United States was higher than expected. After the data was released, the swap market almost no longer expected the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates in March, while the chance of a rate cut in May dropped from about 64% to about 32%. The news drove up bond interest rates. U.S. stocks were under pressure on Tuesday. After the Dow opened 98 points lower, the decline expanded to as much as 757 points in the late period, reaching a low of 38,039 points. 

At the close of the U.S. stock market, the Dow still fell 524 points, or 1.35%, to 38,272 points; the S&P Index fell 68 points, or 1.37%, to 4,953 points; the Nasdaq fell 286 points, or 1.8%, to 15,655 points. 

The foreign exchange index once rose 0.76% to 104.96; the yen fell below 150 per dollar, as low as 150.89, and fell as much as 1.03%.