Investment 19/1/2024

The Hong Kong stock market fell to the 15,000 level and was on the verge of finding support. The Hang Seng Index opened 24 points higher and then fell nearly 100 points to a low of 15,183 points. However, in the afternoon, there were rumors that the "national team" had entered the market, and A-shares managed to hold back and rose, driving the Hang Seng Index to rebound in late trading. , and ended four consecutive losses, closing up 114 points or 0.75% for the whole day, at 15,391 points. The technology index closed at 3,176 points, up 16 points or 0.51%. Main Board I’s total daily turnover was HK$107.3 billion. 

As expected, the Hang Seng Index rebounded yesterday due to severe oversold conditions. It is normal for the market to have a technical rebound after falling for many days in a row, and there may be a chance of a rebound to 16,000 points in the short term. The view on the market outlook is still relatively cautious and pessimistic, because the key at present is still whether the mainland's rescue policies are effective. Often when the policies are not strong enough, the stock market will eventually turn downward. Hong Kong stocks have been selling off recently, mainly because investors are worried about the economic prospects of the mainland. The market needs new positive factors to solve problems such as sluggish domestic housing and consumption and reverse the pessimism. Otherwise, there is a chance that it will fall below the psychological threshold of the pre-return level (15,196), and in the medium and long term, there is a chance that it will test the low of 14,597 points in October 2022. Pay attention to the fact that the United States still maintains high interest rates, and expectations of interest rate cuts have also cooled.

 U.S. brokerage firm Morgan Stanley is bearish on the Hong Kong property market, saying that it still needs a fall in mortgage rates and an improvement in market sentiment to gain support, and this is unlikely to happen within the year. It expects property prices to fall by 10% throughout the year, returning to the level of August 2016. 

European stock markets remained stable, with British, French and German stocks rising by 0.17%, 1.13% and 0.83% respectively. 

U.S. stocks performed well on Thursday. The Dow Jones Industrial Average, which had fallen for three consecutive trading days, opened 34 points higher and then fell 143 points to a low of 37,122 points before closing up more than 200 points. Driven by technology stocks, the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq once rose 0.98% and 1.42% respectively, with the Nasdaq once again crossing the 15,000-point mark.

 At the close of U.S. stocks, the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 201 points, or 0.54%, to 37,468 points, ending its three-day losing streak; the S&P 500 rose 41 points, or 0.88%, to 4,780 points; the Nasdaq rose 200 points, or 1.35%, to 15,055 points. 

Benefiting from strong U.S. retail sales and the fact that the Federal Reserve is in no rush to cut interest rates, the U.S. dollar hit a five-week high of 103.69 on Wednesday and continued to fluctuate at high levels on Thursday. The Euro was also driven by the postponement of interest rate cuts, rising first and then retreating 0.33%, once as low as $1.0847; the British pound fell up to 0.22% to $1.2648. The yen had recovered 0.34% to trade at 147.66 per dollar.