Investment 18/1/2024

After Hong Kong stocks fell below 16,000 on Tuesday (16th), selling pressure intensified significantly yesterday. The Hang Seng Index opened 101 points lower and continued to find the bottom, falling as much as 670 points to 15,194 points, setting a new 14-month low. It closed at 15,276 points, down 589 points or 3.71%. The Hang Seng Index entered 2024 and fell by 1,852 points, a drop of more than 10%. The technology index closed at 3,160 points, down 165 points or 4.99%, underperforming the market. The main board's full-day trading volume increased to HK$130.5 billion. 

The U.S. interest rate cut schedule may not be as fast as earlier expected. U.S. stocks have been under pressure from recent highs, which is expected to drag down the sentiment of Hong Kong stocks. The mainland recently announced that investment in real estate development fell by 9.6% last year, reflecting that the property market has not yet improved, which is believed to further dampen investor confidence. Although there are rumors that the mainland is considering issuing 1 trillion yuan of special government bonds to increase support for the economy, the relevant plan may not be carried out until the second half of the year. It is difficult to save the fire that is far away, and it is difficult to say whether Hong Kong stocks will be prosperous. Due to serious oversold conditions, the Hang Seng Index is expected to rebound today, but in the short term it will once again test the pre-return level (15,196), and in the medium and long term there is a chance it will test the low of 14,597 points in October 2022. 

European stock markets fell, with concerns over weak demand from China dragging down raw materials and luxury goods stocks. British, French and German stock markets fell 1.48%, 1.07% and 0.84% respectively.

 The market's expectations for interest rate cuts from major central banks around the world have cooled. Coupled with strong U.S. retail sales data, U.S. bond interest rates continue to rise. U.S. stocks continued to fall on Wednesday. After opening 79 points lower, the Dow rebounded 10 points, and then fell to a maximum of 228 points. , as low as 37,132 points; the S&P 500 once fell back 1.07%, and the Nasdaq once fell 1.59%. 

At the close of the U.S. market, the Dow Jones Industrial Average dropped 94 points, or 0.25%, to 37,266 points, falling for three consecutive trading days; the S&P Index retreated 26 points, or 0.56%, to 4,739 points; the Nasdaq Composite fell 88 points, or 0.59%, to 14,855 points. point. 

The U.S. dollar index rose 0.32% to 103.692 and then remained roughly flat; the Japanese yen fell by up to 0.9%, hitting a low of 148.52 per dollar; the Australian dollar once fell 0.9% to 65.25 US cents; British inflation unexpectedly accelerated, and the pound rose by up to 0.47% , to $1.2697.