Investment 1/2/2024

Hong Kong stocks ended in decline on the last trading day of January! The Hang Seng Index rose 40 points in the early stage, but was later dragged down by technology stocks and fell as much as 291 points to a low of 15,411 points. It closed at 15,485 points, down 218 points or 1.39%. The technology index once fell below the 3,000-point mark, hitting a 15-month low, and closed at 3,005 points, down 93 points or 3%. The main board's total daily turnover was HK$98.8 billion.

 To summarize January, the Hang Seng Index had its worst January performance in eight years, falling 1,562 points or 9.16% throughout the month. The technology Index suffered a minor stock market crash, falling 758 points or 20% for the whole month.

 Although China's manufacturing PMI rebounded on a monthly basis in January, it is still at a contraction level, which will put some pressure on Hong Kong stocks. We should also pay attention to the internal affairs incident. After Evergrande was ordered to liquidate, whether Country Garden will follow in its footsteps. The Hang Seng Index currently falls below the 20-DMA (15,897) and continues to bottom out, hoping to maintain the return level (15,196), otherwise it will once again test the low of 14,597 points last year, which means that the Hong Kong stock market will once again see a price-to-earnings ratio of 7.3 times. After the central government took action to rescue the market on January 23, the Hang Seng Index rebounded from lows to this level. Once it falls, it will reflect that the effect of the rescue is not significant. The weakest scenario even sees Morgan Stanley predicting that the Hang Seng Index may fall as low as 11,350 points by the end of the year.

 Waiting for the results of the Federal Reserve's interest rate discussion, the market is betting that there is a nearly 50% chance that the Federal Reserve will start cutting interest rates in March. European stocks closed repeatedly and stabilized. The UK's FTSE 100 index closed at 7,630 points, down 0.47% or 35 points; Germany The DAX index closed at 16,903 points, down 0.4% or 68 points; France's CAC 40 index closed at 7,656 points, down 0.27% or 20 points. 

Subsequently, the U.S. Federal Reserve concluded its two-day interest rate meeting and made a decision statement to keep the federal funds index rate unchanged at a range of 5.25% to 5.5%. This was the fourth consecutive interest rate meeting to keep monetary policy unchanged, and the interest rate continued to be maintained. At a 23-year high.

 Before the announcement of the interest rate meeting results, the Dow Jones Industrial Average broke through its peak again. After opening 40 points lower, it rose 121 points to a new high of 38,588 points, while the S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite Index fluctuated at low levels. After the interest rate meeting results were announced, the Dow Jones Industrial Average stabilized for a time. However, Chairman Powell's remarks at the press conference after the meeting cooled the market's expectations for the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates in March. U.S. stocks fell sharply, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average falling as low as 38,139 points. 327 points, it still closed down 317 points or 0.82% at 38,150 points; the S&P 500 fell 79 points or 1.61% to 4,845 points; the Nasdaq fell 345 points or 2.23% to 15,164 points. 

The US dollar index turned from falling to rising, rising as much as 0.33% to 103.74; the yen once rose 1.09% to 146 per dollar, and then the upward trend narrowed significantly.