Investment 29/12/2023

Hong Kong stocks did well on the futures settlement day, closing firmly at the 17,000-point mark throughout the day. The Hang Seng Index expanded its gains in the afternoon, rising as much as 461 points to 17,086 points, and closed at 17,043 points for the whole day, an increase of 418 points, or 2.5%; the Technology Index rose 124 points, or 3.41%, to 3,763 points. Main board transaction volume exceeded HK$109.9 billion.

 Due to the low valuation of Hong Kong stocks, there is not much room for further declines, and there is a chance that the bottom has already been reached. Large-cap technology stocks are oversold in the short term, but the policy is still unclear, the market momentum may not be too strong, and the current market capitalization rate is not high. If after the New Year, there is more good policy news in the mainland and funds re-enter the market, there will be room for the index to rise. Technically, if the Hang Seng Index rises above 16,900 points or falls below 16,200 points due to heavy trading volume, the market outlook may see a clear direction. If the index can stabilize after rising above 17,000, the next resistance will be at 17,600 points. 

The U.S. exchange rate once fell 0.37% to a low of 100.617, falling for 5 consecutive days, and then rose 0.3% to a high of 101.3; the Euro once fell 0.46% to $1.1056; the Japanese yen rose by up to 1.11%, reaching a high of 140.26 per dollar. 

European stock markets fell across the board, with British, French and German stocks closing down 0.03%, 0.48% and 0.24% respectively.

 Driven by expectations of interest rate cuts, the Dow closed on Wednesday as its sixth peak this month. The Nasdaq 100 index soared 54% this year, the largest increase since 1999. The strength of U.S. stocks continued on Thursday, with the Dow hitting a new high, the S&P 500 trying to hit a record high but stalling, and the Nasdaq rising first and then recovering. However, considering the considerable gains that have been accumulated and the market has been overbought for a long time, it cannot be ruled out that it will need to consolidate at a high level in the short term before challenging record highs again. 

The Dow opened slightly higher by 5 points, and the increase once expanded to 122 points, reaching a high of 37,778 points. It still closed up 53 points, or 0.14%, at 37,710 points; the S&P 500 index rose by 1 point, or 0.04%, at 4,783 points, the lowest level since January last year. The high was 4,796 points, only 0.28% lower; the Nasdaq, which is dominated by technology stocks, fell slightly by 4 points or 0.03% to 15,095 points.