Investment 14/11/2023

The performance of Hong Kong stocks was mixed. The Hang Seng Index rose over 100 points in the early stage and then fell. It found support at 17,126 points. It gradually recovered in the afternoon and closed at 17,426 points, up 222 points. It returned to the 20-DMA (17,399), ending the 4-day decline. The technology index closed at 3,981 points, up 88 points. The main board's total daily turnover was HK$75.1 billion. 

After Federal Reserve Chairman Powell delivered a "hawkish" speech last week, global stock markets were dragged down. Hong Kong stocks fell for four consecutive days last week. Looking ahead to this week, the United States will release inflation data, which is believed to have some implications for the direction of interest rates. The mainland will also release a series of economic data, which is expected to reflect the latest economic conditions. In addition, the presidents of China and the United States will meet this week, and the market is hopeful that the situation between the two countries will be eased. However, it is believed that there may be some fluctuations before there is any news. The Hang Seng Index is expected to mainly fall between 17,000 and 18,000 points, and there is not much room for decline at the moment, there is support at the 17,000 level. 

Morgan Stanley pointed out that the mainland continues to face debt and deflation challenges, coupled with the depreciation of the RMB exchange rate, the recovery of the mainland stock market still faces greater resistance. It believes that the authorities need more support measures to persuade investors to return to the market and maintain "and maintain confidence in China's stocks" "In line with the market" rating, but more optimistic about A shares. The most bullish and bearish levels of the Hang Seng Index are 21,500 points and 11,350 points respectively.

 In view of the disappointing progress of Japan's monetary policy normalization, Goldman Sachs maintains its view of "falling to 155 per US dollar in the next six months" proposed at the end of September, that is, the Hong Kong dollar per 100 yen will be as low as 5.03 within half a year. He also said: "The Japanese yen cannot compete with the macro environment." The macro environment that Goldman Sachs refers to is that the U.S. economy remains strong and Treasury bond yields remain high, providing investors with total returns (coupon interest and bond price) that are difficult to enjoy on other Treasury bonds. 

European stock markets performed well across the board, with British stocks closing 0.89% higher, French stocks and German stocks rising 0.6% and 0.73% respectively.

 Investors turned cautious before the release of the latest U.S. inflation data. U.S. stocks performed individually on Monday. After the Dow opened 23 points lower, the decline once expanded to 77 points, reaching a low of 34,205 points. Later, it rose 122 points to a high of 34,405 points. It closed up 54 points to 34,337 points. The S&P 500 index edged down 3 points to 4,411 points. The Nasdaq, which is dominated by technology stocks, fell 30 points to 13,767 points.