Investment 3/10/2023

Mainland A-shares began to close for a long holiday, and Hong Kong stocks had a "last day" at the end of the quarter. The HSI opened 111 points higher and continued to rise. It rose as much as 562 points in the afternoon and reached a high of 17,935 points. There was profit-taking in the late trading and closed at 17,809 points, up 436 points. The HS Technology Index closed at 3,920 points, up 142 points. The main board's trading volume for the whole day was HK$67.6 billion, the weakest since the 5th and 3rd. 


The HSI fell by 572 points , or 3.1% in September; in the third quarter, it fell by 1,106 points, or 5.84%. The S&P Index fell 258 points or 6.17% in September. In the third quarter, it rose first and then recovered, rising slightly by 9 points in the whole quarter. 


The market coincides with the end of the quarter and the suspension of North Water, so trading is even quieter. Last Friday, as expected, due to severe oversold, there was a technical rebound and regained the 10-DMA (17,752). However, it was restricted by the 20-DMA (18,011). The market outlook has to break through the 50-DMA (18,523) before it has a chance to move upward. 


The biggest problem for the Hong Kong stock market at present is that funds are in a passive state. In addition, the market is waiting to see whether the slowdown in mainland economic growth will improve in the fourth quarter, as well as the issue of debt restructuring of mainland real estate companies, which all affect the performance of the market. Coupled with the influence of psychological factors as October enters the "traditional stock market crash month", the chance of being cursed is not low. It is difficult for Hong Kong stocks to get rid of the bottom-seeking pattern in the short term. Although there are occasional rebounds, the overall market condition is weak. 


Then, the HSI may first test the low of 16,830 points on November 28 last year. It is also expected to have the opportunity to test 15,000 to 16,000 points. The support level is last year's low. Around 14,600 points. 


Cumulatively last week, the Dow and S&P fell by 1.3% and 0.7% respectively, while the Nasdaq rose by 0.06%. Cumulatively in September, the Dow fell by 3.5%, the S&P fell by 4.9%, and the Nasdaq fell by 5.8%; the S&P and Nasdaq also recorded their worst single-month performance this year. In the third quarter, the Dow fell 2.6%, the S&P 500 fell 3.7%, and the Nasdaq fell 4.1%. 


Monday, European stock markets first rose and then fell, with British, French and German stocks falling by 1.28%, 0.94% and 0.91% respectively. 


Although the U.S. government shutdown crisis has been temporarily resolved, U.S. bond interest rates have risen again, and U.S. stocks have experienced individual developments on the first trading day of the fourth quarter. The Dow opened 52 points lower and then fell repeatedly, falling as much as 287 points to a low of 33,219, before recovering. Most of the losses were lost, still falling for the 8th consecutive trading day; large technology stocks were popular, and the Nasdaq once rose 1.09%. 


The U.S. stock market closed: the Dow fell only 74 points to 33,433; the S&P 500 rose less than 1 point to 4,288; the Nasdaq rose 88 points to 13,307. 

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