Investment 18/10/2023

Hong Kong stocks stabilized after falling for two consecutive days. The Hang Seng Index opened 165 points higher and then fluctuated within a narrow range. It closed at 17,773 points, up 132 points, with a full-day fluctuation of only 143 points. The HS technology index closed at 3,836 points, up 24 points. The main board's total daily turnover was HK$63.5 billion. 


Yesterday, as expected, the Hang Seng Index once again returned above the 20-DMA (17,668). The market outlook may challenge the resistance of the 50-DMA (18,126), and even have a chance to go up to the 100-DMA (18,646), but it will once again cross the 250-DMA (19,105), which is the dividing line between bulls and bears. It is too early to tell. We should pay attention to the external economic conditions and the development of the situation in the Middle East. If the breakthrough fails and the daily chart forms an island top turn, and the falling gap cannot be quickly covered, there is a high chance of bottoming out again. The first support level is between 17,000 and 17,600 points. If the Hang Seng Index pulls back from its earlier rise of fibo 0.618, the measured decline target is 16,750 points, which is around the low of 16,830 points on November 28 last year. 


The Mainland has launched a series of measures to rescue the market. On Monday (16th), the People's Bank of China injected a net RMB 289 billion of long-term funds through the medium-term lending facility (MLF), hitting a new high this year. Although many mainland policies have been beneficial to the stock market recently, the market has not seen much reaction, reflecting a lack of confidence in entering the market. It is believed that the news will have a limited effect on boosting the stock markets in China and Hong Kong. 


Since the outbreak of the Israel-Hamas war, in addition to oil prices rising to over $90, transportation costs have also soared significantly. Another war against inflation? Philadelphia Fed President Patrick Harker said on Monday that the Fed should not consider further interest rate increases because many U.S. small businesses have struggled to withstand the impact of tightening policies so far. 


European stock markets performed well, with British, French and German stocks closing up 0.58%, 0.11% and 0.09% respectively. 


The latest U.S. retail sales data showed strong performance, and corporate quarterly results generally beat expectations. 


U.S. stocks were mixed on Tuesday. The Dow opened 114 points lower, and the decline expanded to 129 points. It was as low as 33,854. It later recovered its losses and once rose to 163 points. points, reaching a high of 34,147; the S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite Index fell repeatedly, with the S&P 500 falling as much as 0.83% and the Nasdaq Composite having fallen 1.5%. 


At the close of the U.S. stock market, the Dow rose 13 points to 33,997; the S&P 500 fell slightly less than 1 point to 4,373; the Nasdaq fell 34 points to 13,533. 

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