Investment 17/10/2023

The China Securities Regulatory Commission tightened borrowing and short selling of A-shares last weekend, including increasing the margin ratio and restricting borrowing stock shipments during the lock-up period. It is obvious that it intends to restrict large investors from selling A-shares for cash. In addition, the People's Bank of China yesterday injected a net RMB 289 billion of long-term funds through the medium-term lending facility (MLF), hitting a new high this year. However, the market remains indifferent. A-shares ended in decline again on Monday. The Shenzhen Component Index fell below the 10,000-point mark again, returning to the level during the epidemic. The Shanghai Composite Index even fell below the August low, which shows that the weakness of the capital market has not changed. 


Entering the second half of the "stock market crash month", Hong Kong stocks followed A shares in weakness. The Hang Seng Index opened 10 points lower and then rose briefly. The decline expanded in the afternoon and closed at 17,640 points, down 173 points. The HS technology index closed at 3,811 points, down 68 points. The main board's total daily turnover was HK$73.7 billion. 


Hong Kong stocks also rose above the 18,000 mark last week, but some funds took advantage of the rebound to profit, and the Hang Seng Index broke through in vain. It is expected that the Hang Seng Index will return to the 20-DMA (17,676) today and challenge the resistance of the 50-DMA (18,159). There is a chance that the market outlook will go up to the 100-DMA (18,665). However, it is too early to say that the 250-DMA (19,103) will once again cross the bull-bear boundary.  We should pay attention to the external economic conditions and the development of the situation in the Middle East. If the breakthrough fails and the daily chart forms an island top turn, and the falling gap cannot be quickly covered, there is a high chance of bottoming out again. The first support level is between 17,000 and 17,600 points. If the Hang Seng Index pulls back from its earlier rise of fibo 0.618, the measured decline target is 16,750 points, which is around the low of 16,830 points on November 28 last year.


 European stock markets stabilized, with British, French and German stocks rising 0.41%, 0.27% and 0.34% respectively.


 U.S. President Biden is reported to be considering visiting Israel. The market hopes that Russia and other evil schemes will not succeed. The war between Israel and the Palestinian armed organization Hamas is under control. Risk aversion has temporarily cooled down. U.S. stocks performed significantly better on Monday, with the Dow opening higher at 162 After 10 points, the increase once expanded to 418 points, reaching a high of 34,088 points; the S&P 100 once rose 1.28%, and the Nasdaq rose 1.42% at most. 


At the close of the U.S. stock market, the Dow still rose 314 points to 33,984; the S&P 500 rose 45 points to 4,373; the Nasdaq rebounded 160 points to 13,567. 

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