Investment 4/9/2023

The Hong Kong stock market was closed last Friday due to the arrival of Typhoon Sulla signal 10. Looking at August, the HSI fell by 1,696 points or 8.45%, the largest decline since February, ending two consecutive months of gains. HS Technology index fell 370 points or 8.14% in August.

Hong Kong stocks rose first and then retreated on the last trading day of August. After the HSI opened 97 points higher, the gain once expanded to 184 points, reaching a high of 18,667 points. Later, selling pressure emerged, and it fell 100 points throughout the day to 18,382 points. The HS technology index fell 15 points to 4,179. The turnover of the Main Board was HK$136.5 billion. 

Last week, the HSI showed a black candlestick gyro scrambling to wait for a change signal. Although the market rebounded, trading volume did not increase significantly. The HSI was subject to the resistance of the falling gap (18,792 to 19,049) on August 14. The  10-DMA (18,086) is not far from the current HSI. If the Hong Kong stock market fluctuates around 300 points in September, it will fall below the 10-DMA, then covering the rising gap at the end of November last year (17,364 to 17,536 ). If there is a short-term rebound, it must first break through the 20-DMA (18,477), with resistance at last Thursday's high of 18,667 points.

After the performance period, the focus will return to macroeconomic data. If the performance is not as good as expected, the market will be under pressure to fall repeatedly. The market's expectation of interest rate hikes has cooled, and the US 10-year bond yield and the US dollar have fallen from their high levels. This is good news for the stock market. However, Hong Kong stock investors focus on the mainland economy. A more pessimistic view of the macroeconomic outlook. The current situation is not technically or morphologically unfavorable to the development of the stock market, so investors should do a good job in risk management. 

European stock markets developed individually, with British stocks rising 0.34%, French stocks and German stocks closing down 0.27% and 0.67% respectively.

At the close last Friday, the Dow rose 115 points to 34,837; the S&P 500 rose slightly by 8 points to 4,515; the technology-heavy Nasdaq dropped 3 points to 14,031. U.S. stocks performed well last week, recovering some of the losses from August's decline. Among the three major indexes, the Nasdaq performed best, rising 3% cumulatively, the S&P 500 rose 2.5%, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 1.4%. 

 

Looking back at last week, the driving forces that drove the market, including last Friday’s announcement that the increase in non-agricultural jobs in the United States in August was better than expected, but the rising unemployment rate further weakened the possibility of the Fed raising interest rates. 

Looking ahead to this week, Monday is the Labor Day holiday in the United States and financial markets are closed. According to market participants, the main focus this week is the regional economic report released by the Federal Reserve Board, commonly known as the Beige Book, and the quarterly performance of many blue chips is also an important reference factor.