Investment 29/9/2023

Hong Kong stocks were repeatedly soft on the futures settlement day. The  HSI opened 24 points lower at 17,587 points. It once rose to 17,627 points, and then encountered selling pressure again. It fell as much as 259 points to a low of 17,352 points. It fell 238 points throughout the day to 17,373 points, setting a new low this year; HS Technology Index It fell 55 points to 3,778 points. Main board transaction volume was HK$80.1 billion.


 The external market is in turmoil, with the U.S. 10-year bond interest rate rising to 4.6%. The market is raising expectations for interest rate hikes, which has an impact on global stock markets. Coupled with the strong holiday atmosphere, investors are less willing to enter the market. Due to serious oversold conditions, the market cannot be ruled out. There will be a technical rebound, but the 10-DMA (17,789) and the 20-DMA (18,044) must first be recovered to have the opportunity to move higher. However, with the market still experiencing repeated downturns and sparse trading volume, the situation is expected to remain unfavorable in early October. There is a high chance that the market will fully make up for the rising gap of 17,364 to 17,536 points on November 29 last year. It is likely to continue to find the bottom, with the support level at 16,600 to 16,800 points. Since it has already fallen below the double-top neckline in the early stage, the measured downward target is 16,198 points. 


Traditionally, market conditions in October are worrying, but there may not necessarily be a stock market crash. In the past 10 years, the market has only fallen in October in three years, while it has risen in other years. However, considering that the current problems are far more serious than before, including domestic housing debt, high interest rates, and a weak economy, all will reflect to the stock market. 


European stock markets performed well, with British stocks rising slightly by 0.11%, French and German stocks rising by 0.63% and 0.7% respectively. The final value of U.S. economic growth in the second quarter was 2.1%, and the latest employment data was also solid. U.S. stocks fell first and then rebounded on Thursday. The Dow opened 30 points lower and then rose repeatedly. It rose as much as 227 points and reached a high of 33,777. The closing rally narrowed; It once rose 1%, and the Nasdaq rose as much as 1.36%. 


The U.S. market closed: the Dow rose 116 points to 33,666; the S&P 500 rose 25 points to 4,299; the Nasdaq climbed 108 points to 13,201. 

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