Investment 22/9/2023

Concerns that the United States will maintain high interest rates for a period of time are dragging down market sentiment. After opening 89 points lower, the HSI in Hong Kong expanded its losses, falling as much as 261 points to a low of 17,623 points, a new low in September. It closed at 17,655 points, down 230 points. The HS technology index closed at 3,849 points, down 72 points. The main board's total daily turnover was HK$77.4 billion.

In addition to being affected by the external high interest rate environment, the overall investment sentiment in Hong Kong stocks is sluggish. Investors seem to be waiting for clearer signals, such as signs of improvement in the mainland's macroeconomic and corporate performance, before daring to enter the market. The HSI fell from a high of 18,889 points on the 4th of this month to yesterday's low of 17,623 points, a drop of 1,266 points. Next Thursday (28th) is the settlement day for spot-month index futures. It is expected that the HSI will continue to fall again in the next six trading days. Further downward, it fell back to this year's low of 17,573 points on August 22, and then tested the channel bottom level of 17,400 points since March. If the rising gap of 17,364 to 17,536 points on November 29 last year is fully covered, it will continue to find the bottom. The support level is 16,600 to 16,800 points. Since it fell below the double top neckline earlier, the measured downside target is 16,198 points. Even if there is a short-term rebound, the top of the downward trajectory has become resistance, currently around 18,100 points. 

European stock markets fell across the board, with British, French and German stocks falling 0.69%, 1.59% and 1.33% respectively.

Last week, the number of people applying for unemployment benefits for the first time in the United States fell to 201,000, a new low since January this year. The number of people applying for unemployment benefits in the previous week also dropped to 1.662 million. Both of them deviated from market expectations. In addition, the latest dot plot shows , all support the rationale for the US Federal Reserve to reduce the potential space for interest rate cuts next year, which in turn stimulated the interest rate of US Treasury bonds to rise. Among them, the 10-year maturity rose to 4.494%, a new 16-year high, and the 30-year maturity rose to 4.533%, the highest level in 12 years. It broke through the 4.5% mark for the first time.

 If so, the three major U.S. stock indexes continued their decline after the Federal Reserve's interest rate meeting. They came under significant pressure on Thursday, and the decline intensified in the late period. The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell sharply by more than 300 points. All three major indexes closed close to the day's lows, with losses ranging from It almost exceeded 1% to 1.8%, marking the third consecutive day of decline. 

After opening 108 points lower, the Dow Jones Industrial Average fluctuated around lows in the early and middle periods, and fell further at the end, closing down 370 points at 34,070. The S&P 500 fell below the 4,400-point mark and closed at 4,330, down 72 points. The Nasdaq fell 245 points to 34,070.