Investment 11/9/2023

Hong Kong stocks were suspended for the entire day last Friday due to extreme weather and black rain. U.S. bond interest rates and the U.S. exchange rate index both rose, and the RMB weakened as a result. 

Hong Kong stocks HSI opened slightly lower by 12 points last Thursday to 18,437, which was already the highest level of the day. The decline immediately expanded, with a maximum loss of 276 points in the afternoon, and the intraday price after August 28 It hit a low of 18,173. The decline in the late market was slightly reversed, and it finally closed at 18,202, down 247 points, setting a new closing low since August 28. The high and low fluctuations throughout the day were 264 points, with a cumulative gain of 642 points in 3 days. The HS technology index closed at 4,091, down 85 points. The main board's full-day turnover was HK$86.8 billion, a daily decrease of 6.6%, the lowest since August 25.

Summing up the four trading days last week, the HSI fell by 179 points or 1%, ending its two-week winning streak; the HS Tech index fell by 87 points or 2.1%, ending its two-week rising trend. 

Looking ahead to this week, since the HSI has fallen below all major moving averages, there is no risk to defend. If the RMB continues to depreciate, the market will follow suit and hit the bottom. The positive effects of the Mainland's support for the property market are gradually being digested, and the market is dominated by the negative atmosphere of rising expectations of U.S. interest rate hikes. After falling below the short-term upward trajectory, the HSI closed below the 10-DMA (18,360) and the 20-DMA (18,357) last Thursday, there is no major moving average support below. If there is no new good news, the market trend will continue downward. The first hurdle is to focus on the bull zone of 17,900 points, and then it will try the low of 17,573 points on August 22. If the rising gap of 17,364 to 17,536 points on November 29 last year is fully covered, the trend will continue to find the bottom, and the next support level will be 16,600 to 16,800 points. Since the HSI fell below the double top neckline, the measured decline target is 16,198 points. 

European stock markets stopped falling on Friday, with British, French and German stock markets closing up 0.49%, 0.62% and 0.14% respectively. 

Morgan Stanley analyst Erik W Woodring believes that the worst-case scenario of China’s restrictions on Apple is that the company’s revenue will fall by 4% and its earnings will be affected by 3%. In addition, Daniel Ives, an analyst at the brokerage Wedbush, believes that the market is overly worried about the ban. It is expected that iPhone sales in China will only decrease by 500,000 units, which is insignificant compared to the estimated total sales of 45 million in the next 12 months. Apple stabilized after falling for two consecutive days, once rebounding 1.5%. 

On the other hand, U.S. Federal Reserve officials issued dovish remarks, causing U.S. bond interest rates and the dollar to fall. U.S. stocks stabilized repeatedly on Friday. The Dow opened 13 points lower and then turned upward, rising as much as 127 points to a high of 34,627. The S&P 500 index rose by 0.5%, and the Nasdaq, which is dominated by technology stocks, once rose by 0.69%. 

The U.S. market closed: the Dow rose 75 points to 34,576; the S&P 500 rose 6 points to 4,457, ending its losing streak over the past two days; the Nasdaq rose 12 points to 13,761. 

Last week, the Dow fell 0.75%, the S&P 500 lost 1.29%, and the Nasdaq fell 1.93%.

Looking ahead to this week, the primary focus is U.S. inflation data, Apple's iPhone, and the threat of a nationwide strike due to new labor negotiations in the U.S. auto industry. 

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