Investment 28/8/2023

Last Friday, the HSI opened 174 points lower and then repeatedly found a bottom, and closed at the day's low of 17,956 points, down 255 points. The HS technology index closed at 4,058 points, down 99 points. The full-day turnover of the main board was HK$81.3 billion. 

The HSI fluctuated last week, rising 5 points throughout the week; the HS Tech Index rose 51 points throughout the week. 

After rising for 3 consecutive days, the Hong Kong stock market fell back again as expected and fell below the HSI 18,000 mark again. US Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell hinted that interest rate hikes may be suspended in September. Last Friday, the US stock market was driven up. In addition, the mainland just announced that the stamp duty on securities will be halved and it will help real estate companies to raise funds. It is expected that Hong Kong stocks will rebound steadily today. If it can surpass the 10-DMA(18,139) and 18,300 points, the market outlook may challenge the 20-DMA (18,812), or even the 50-DMA (19,024) level. Otherwise, it will test 17,500 points. If it fully covers the rising gap of 17,364 to 17,536 points on November 29 last year, it will continue to find a bottom, and the next support level is 16,600 to 16,800 points. As the HSI fell below the double top neckline, The downside target for the measure is 16,198. 

Hong Kong stocks are still troubled by several factors, including the possibility that the mainland's economy in the second half of the year may be worse than the first half, the debt problems of mainland developers and the weakness of the renminbi. Investment bank downgrades followed one after another. Both Morgan Stanley and Goldman Sachs lowered their targets for Hong Kong stocks in response to the risks of domestic real estate. Among them, Morgan Stanley lowered their targets for China and Hong Kong stock markets twice within 3 months. In June, the estimated 21,500 points dropped by nearly 14%. Morgan Stanley also suggested that "with volatility but no increase" will be the new normal for Hong Kong stocks. The most pessimistic is that the HSI will fall to 12,200 points. 

European stock markets rebounded sharply at the end of the session, with British, French and German stock markets rising slightly by 0.07%, 0.21% and 0.07% respectively. 

The U.S. stock market Dow opened 117 points higher, the increase has expanded to more than 250 points. After Powell’s speech, the Dow once fell 70 points repeatedly, reaching a low of 34,029, but quickly regained the lost ground and turned up. The late rise expanded to 342 points, with a high of 34,441. 

The US stock market closed : The Dow rose 247 points to 34,346; the S&P 500 rose 29 points to 4,405; the Nasdaq rose 126 points to 13,590. 

Over the week, the Dow retreated 0.45%, the second consecutive week of decline; the S&P gained 0.82%, and the Nasdaq rose 2.26%, both ending the losing streak in the past three weeks. 

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