Investment 22/8/2023

The People's Bank of China officially cut interest rates on Monday (21st), and the one-year loan market quotation rate (LPR) was 3.45%, which was weaker than the expected 3.4%. The HSI of Hong Kong stocks opened 152 points lower and then bottomed out repeatedly. It fell by 363 points at most, reaching a nearly 9-month low of 17,587 points on November 29 last year; it closed at 17,623 points, down 327 points. The daily high and low volatility was 280 points. It dropped 1,625 points, compared to the last 7 consecutive declines from October 26 to November 3, 2021. The HS technology index fell below the 4,000-point mark and closed at 3,923 points, down 84 points. The full-day turnover of the Main Board was HK$108.5 billion. 

The trend of the HSI has fluctuated from wave to wave. In the past 3 weeks, it has dropped by more than 2,700 points from its high level. Even in August, it has reached more than 2,400 points. The market is seriously oversold, and there should be a technical rebound in the short term. If the market rebounds, the resistance level is yesterday's falling gap from 17,867 to 17,936 points. But it will bounce back and then fall. The support level is the rising gap of 17,364 to 17,536 points on November 29 last year. If it is fully covered, the next support level will be 16,600 to 16,800 points. As the HSI fell below the double top neckline, the measure down target is 16,198 points.

At present, the market is concerned about whether the China-U.S. issue will be alleviated; in addition, the central government has already cut interest rates, or it may take measures to stabilize the debt of domestic real estate companies and other issues to rescue the market. Last Friday, the People's Bank of China, the State Administration of Financial Supervision, and the China Securities Regulatory Commission held a meeting unexpectedly, emphasizing that financial institutions should take the initiative to increase loans, and at the same time, they must coordinate to reduce the risk of local government debt and release water signals. This week, we should pay attention to the results of domestic banks and insurance stocks, as well as the BRICS summit held in South Africa. 

The European stock markets were mixed, the British stock market fell slightly by 0.06%, the French and German stock markets rose by 0.47% and 0.19% respectively. 

The yield on the 10-year U.S. bond topped 4.35 percent on Monday, the highest level since 2007. U.S. stocks first rose and then retreated in the early part of Monday. After opening 30 points higher, the Dow fell by as much as 252 points, reaching a low of 34,248, which was repeatedly weak. The S&P 500 rose 0.87%. However, the performance of heavyweight technology stocks rebounded. The technology-based Nasdaq once rebounded 1.7%, and still rose by more than 1.5%. 

At the close of the U.S. market, the Dow lost 36 points to 34,463; the S&P 500 rose 30 points to 4,399; the Nasdaq rose 206 points to 13,497. 

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