Investment 16/8/2023

Due to the recent explosions of Country Garden, Zhongrong Trust, and Zhongzhi, the mainland unexpectedly cut interest rates to save the market. However, in July, the "three pillars" of the mainland economy, namely consumption, investment and exports, were all worse than expected, and the PBOC's interest rate cuts did not help. The offshore RMB continued to depreciate under pressure, falling to 7.30. 

Hong Kong stock market HSI opened 174 points lower yesterday and turned weak again and again. It fell as much as 259 points to 18,513 points, and closed down 192 points to 18,581 points. The HS technology index closed at 4,179 points, down 29 points. The full-day turnover of the main board was HK$81.9 billion.

The HSI fell to the 18,500 level yesterday, and there is still support, but the 10-DMA (19,212) fell below the 50-DMA (19,233), forming a "death cross". It will be difficult, and it needs to be driven by major positive factors. Let's see, let's see if the mainland will reduce the stamp duty on stocks as rumored, and if it is implemented, it will stimulate the stock market in China and Hong Kong to rebound. Otherwise, it is expected to see-saw at the bottom 18,500 level of the ascending channel formed at the end of May. For the time being, the view on Hong Kong stocks is relatively conservative, but if there is no major bad news, the HSI should be supported at 18,000, and a technical rebound is more likely.

 European stock markets fell across the board, with British, French and German stock markets falling 1.57%, 1.1% and 0.86% respectively. 
 
Poor economic data from China, coupled with rising U.S. bond yields and the possibility of credit rating downgrades for large U.S. banks, the S&P banking index once fell by 3%. . The Dow opened 88 points lower and then immediately fell. It fell by as much as 399 points and fell by 35,000 points, reaching a low of 34,908 points.

 The U.S. stock market closed:  The Dow still fell 361 points to 34,946; the S&P 500 fell 51 points to 4,437; the Nasdaq fell 157 points to 13,631. 

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