Investment 6/7/2023

The Sino-US technology war escalated, and the RMB was weak. Hong Kong stocks rose nearly 500 points for two consecutive days in July and then retreated. The HSI opened 60 points lower, and the decline was reduced to 36 points, reaching a high of 19,378. However, after the mainland announced that the PMI of the service industry was worse than expected, the market’s selling pressure increased, and it once jumped 320 points, reaching a daily low of 19,095. The HSI finally closed near the day's low, down 305 points to 19,110. The HS Tech index closed at 4,016, down 57 points. The full-day turnover increased to HK$86.8 billion . 

The Hong Kong stock market retreated yesterday after two consecutive gains. It regained the 20-DMA (19,328) and then fell back a day later. It shows that the resistance of the 250-DMA(19,451), which is the boundary between bulls and bears, is strong. Fortunately, the 10-DMA(19,090) has taken over. It is expected that the short-term fluctuation range of the market will be 18,600 to 19,500 points. However, the view on July will not be too pessimistic. According to historical statistics, July has always been "more ups than downs." It is believed that the decline in the market was due to the fact that the Caixin PMI was worse than market expectations. The domestic banking, domestic demand, and consumption sectors were obviously under pressure. In addition, some major banks downgraded the ratings of domestic banking stocks, which all dragged down the performance of the domestic banking sector. Trading in Hong Kong stocks was sluggish, reflecting that the previous uptrend was not comprehensive and the strength of the uptrend was insufficient. The relationship between China and the United States will still be "talking while fighting, fighting without breaking." Even if the US Treasury Secretary Yellen visits China, no specific measures are expected. In the coming period, we should pay attention to whether the mainland will introduce economic stimulus measures, as well as the development of Sino-US relations. 

European stocks fell across the board, with British, French and German stock markets falling 1.03%, 0.8% and 0.63% respectively. 

The poor data of China's service industry has exacerbated global worries about the economy. The Fed released the June interest rate meeting records, saying that almost all officials involved in decision-making expected to raise interest rates several times this year, but the pace of interest rate hikes was lower than that since the beginning of last year. A series of rapid actions slowed down, and the news had little impact on US stocks. 

The U.S. stock market resumed trading after the holiday on Wednesday. After the Dow opened 73 points lower, the decline immediately expanded to 191 points, it once fell as low as 34,226, and the closing decline narrowed; the S&P index once fell 0.43%; the Nasdaq fell by as much as 0.38%, and then turned around and recovered. 

At the close of the US market, the Dow fell 129 points to 34,288; the S&P 500 dropped 8 points to 4,446; the Nasdaq dropped 25 points to 13,791.