Investment 3/7/2023

The Hong Kong stock market lacked direction at the half-year end. The HSI fell nearly 100 points in the early part and then rose 135 points. It peaked at 19,070 and then turned back. It continued to struggle in the afternoon and closed at 18,916.  The HS technology index closed at 3,911, down 22 points. The daily turnover of the main board was HK$ 81.1 billion ,  which continued to be less than 100 billion. 

It is expected that there will be a short-term rebound in the market, but the falling gap (19,377 to 19,504) on June 21 will have resistance. After the rebound is complete, the low of 18,044 at the end of May is still under test. 

Over the course of the week, the HSI rose by 27 points and the HS Tech index rose by 32 points. 

In June , the Hong Kong stock market did not appear "6 uniques". The HSI rose by 682 points or 3.7%; the HS Tech index rose by 284 points or 7.8%. 

To sum up the first half of the year, the trend of the HSI is like a "mountain and trough". It first reached a semi-annual high of 22,700 points at the beginning of the year, and then retested to 18,044 points at the end of May. The volatility of the period was 4,656 points. It fell 865 points, or 4.37%, and was the last among many major markets around the world. It was a far cry from the U.S. Nasdaq’s rise of nearly 30%; the HS Tech index fell 217 points, or 5.2%. 

Looking forward to July, it depends on the trend of the RMB exchange rate and whether the central government will introduce more economic stimulus measures. Increasing rescue efforts as scheduled will become the key factors for whether the "7 turnaround" can be achieved. It is expected that the HSI will hover between 18,000 and 20,000, and resistance is expected at 21,000. If the Politburo meeting in mid-July can introduce large-scale stimulus policies, the price-earnings ratio of the HSI is expected to increase by about 10%, and the HSI is also expected to rise to the level of 20,000 points to 23,000 points. 

UBS recently lowered the HSI target by about 8% to 21,700 points, and reminded that under the high interest rate environment, there is limited room for stock market valuation to rise. The chief investment office of Standard Chartered Wealth Management released the market outlook for 2023, saying that the volatility of Hong Kong stocks has been low recently. Although the company has sufficient cash flow, it lacks confidence. Therefore, further economic development requires fiscal policy rather than monetary policy. 

European stock markets performed well across the board, with British, French and German stock markets closing up 0.8%, 1.19% and 1.26% respectively. 

U.S. inflation eased further, and U.S. stocks performed significantly better on the last trading day of the first half of the year. The Dow continued to climb after opening 147 points higher. At the end of the period, it once extended its upward trend to 344 points, reaching a high of 34,467; the S&P once rose 1.41%; technology stocks The leading Nasdaq rose by as much as 1.66%.

 The US stock market closed  :  The Dow rose 285 points to 34,407; the S&P 500 rose 53 points to 4,450; and the Nasdaq rose 196 points to 13,787.