Investment 26/7/2023

The Politburo meeting of the Central Committee of the Communist Party of China was held the day before yesterday. It clearly stated that the active capital market, coupled with the strengthening of the renminbi, led the Hong Kong stock market to undertake the overnight upward trend. Yesterday, it saw a retaliatory rebound. The HSI opened 504 points higher and then went up repeatedly. It rose more and more, up 797 points, reaching a high of 19,465, and finally closing at a near-day high of 19,434, an increase of 766 points, the second largest increase this year. The HS technology index closed at 4,257, up 242 points. Turnover on the main board rose to HK$142.1 billion, the highest since the 16th of last month. 

The HSI regained the 20-DMA (18,987), 10-DMA (19,037), 50-DMA (19,167) and 250-DMA bull-bear lines (19,331) yesterday, and broke through the 19,300 level at the top of the narrowing triangle formed since June. Note that since mid-April, the market has experienced one wave after another. Although it bounced above the bull-bear line many times during this period, it was restrained by the 10-DMA and fell back. If there is an adjustment, the HSI will have support at 18,500 points, and the support at 18,000 points will be stronger. There may be no need to be overly pessimistic. In the third quarter, it is expected to test 21,500 to 22,000 points. 

The market hopes that the Fed will soon end its rate hike cycle, and the external stock market is doing well. The meeting of the Political Bureau of the Central Committee of the Communist Party of China proposed that measures such as intensification of macro-policy regulation should be strengthened, and Hong Kong stocks may be optimistic in the short term. There is not much suspense for the Fed to increase by 0.25% this Thursday. At that time, the interest rate gap between China and the United States will further expand, which will put a certain depreciation pressure on the RMB. These two points will restrict the rebound of the Hong Kong stock market. 

European stocks struggled. British and German stocks rose 0.17% and 0.13% respectively, while French stocks fell slightly by 0.16%. 

When the US Federal Reserve held an interest rate meeting, the newly released consumer confidence index rose to a two-year high, enhancing the market's expectations for a soft landing for the economy. After opening 10 points higher, the Dow fell 45 points at one point to a low of 35,365. It quickly turned around and rose 116 points to a high of 35,527. The S&P 500 rose as much as 0.57%, and the tech-heavy Nasdaq rose 1.02%. 

The U.S. stock market closed. The Dow rose 26 points to 35,438; the S&P 500 rose 12 points to 4,567; the Nasdaq rose 85 points to 14,144. 

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