Investment 18/7/2023

The Hong Kong stock market was closed for the whole day yesterday due to the No. 8 typhoon signal. 

The US inflation data eased, leading the HSI to open 184 points higher on Friday to 19,534, which was already a day high points. Afterwards, it dipped down to 19,364, but still rose 13 points, and continued to hover at the low level. It finally closed at 19,413, up 63 points, rising for 5 days in a row. The HS Tech  index closed down 8 points at 4,228. Market turnover was HK$91.2 billion . 

For a week, the HSI rose by 1,048 points; the HS Tech  Index rose by 327 points. 

Even though there is no lack of good news from the mainland and the outside world, Hong Kong stocks rose by only 63 points on Friday. Although the Hang Seng Index regained above the 250-DMA (19,372), which is the boundary between bulls and bears, Hong Kong stocks have not yet shaken off the weakness. According to the technical trend, the 50-DMA (19,278) fell below the 250-DMA, forming a "death cross" negative technical indicator. In the short term, there may be pressure to take back the rising gap (18,932 to 19,163) last Thursday. The initial upward resistance is expected to be at the 100-DMA (19,675). If it can break through, last month's high of 20,155 points will be an important short-term resistance. If it breaks, it can test 21,000 points. It will be difficult to revisit the January high of 22,700. 

The Hong Kong stock market’s performance in recent days is related to the rebound of the RMB, and the rise of the RMB is mainly driven by the fall of the US dollar. However, in the long run, the weakness of the RMB is expected to remain unchanged, depending on the recovery of the mainland economy. Just last week when the Hong Kong stock market improved slightly, the government announced the issuance of at least HK$ 50 billion of huge high-interest silver bonds, which will divert funds from the stock market, which means that the downward pressure on the market outlook still cannot be underestimated. 

Luxury goods stocks led the decline. The three major European stock indexes fell. British, French and German stocks fell 0.38%, 1.12% and 0.23% respectively. 

The market is waiting to see the results of U.S. companies to be released later this week. U.S. stocks were in a turmoil on Monday. After opening 9 points lower, the Dow once extended its decline to 90 points, reaching a low of 34,418. Afterwards, it rose by as much as 156 points and reached a high of 34,665. On the 6th trading day; the index once rose 0.61%; the Nasdaq, which is dominated by technology stocks, once rose 1.14%. 

The US stock market closed : The Dow rose 76 points to 34,585; the S&P 500 rose 17 points to 4,522; the Nasdaq rose 131 points to 14,244. 

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