Investment 26/6/2023

The weakness of the RMB has not changed, and the offshore RMB has fallen to the weakest in nearly 7 months. Hong Kong stocks will be sold after the Dragon Boat Festival holiday. After the HSI opened 83 points lower on Friday, it has fallen more and more. The index finally closed at 18,889, down 328 points. The HS Tech  index closed at 3,879, down 82 points. The mainland market is closed for holidays, and the lack of China Cap. The market turnover is only HK$69.7 billion , the lowest since May 3 this year. 

Hong Kong stocks traded on the 4th of last week, and the result was "four consecutive negative days". The HSI fell 1,150 points, or 5.73%, for the week; the HS Tech index fell 354 points, or 8.36%. 

Last Friday, the HSI fell below the 20-DMA (19,164) as expected, lost the 19,000-point mark, and narrowly held the low of 18,829 on March 20. It is expected to fall below today, and the low of 18,044 on May 31 is expected to be tested again. The market still hopes that the mainland will continue to introduce favorable policies, and expects that the mainland economy will have a chance to maintain stability in the second half of the year. If there is a rebound due to oversold in the short term, last Friday's falling gap (19,138 to 19,174) is expected to have resistance. In the future market, the HSI is trapped in the range between 20-DMA(19,164) and 100-DMA (20,060). 

As the UK's latest interest rate hike exceeded market expectations, US Federal Reserve Chairman Powell took a tough stance, reiterating the need to raise interest rates to deal with inflation, and may raise interest rates twice this year, which is not conducive to the sentiment of the stock market. In addition, U.S. relations have become tense, and the RMB has continued to weaken, and then devalued to the weakest in nearly seven months. Coupled with the high base in the second half of last year, the mainland's economic stimulus measures failed to bear fruit, putting pressure on Hong Kong stocks. 

European stocks fell across the board. British, French and German stocks closed down by 0.54%, 0.55% and 0.99% respectively. 

Under the shadow of central banks around the world continuing to tighten monetary policies, the latest purchasing managers’ index (PMI) in Europe and the United States performed poorly, exacerbating concerns about economic recession. After falling for 4 trading days in a row, the Dow opened 111 points lower on Friday, and the decline immediately expanded It reached 300 points, once as low as 33,646 points, and then the decline narrowed; the S&P 500 index once fell 0.93%, and the Nasdaq, which is dominated by technology stocks, fell as much as 1.38%. 

The U.S. stock market closed, with the Dow falling 219 points to 33,727; the S&P 500 dropped 33 points to 4,348; the Nasdaq dropped 138 points to 13,492. 

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