Investment 23/6/2023

The Hong Kong stock market fell for 3 days in a row. The HSI opened 301 points lower and then repeatedly found a bottom. It fell by as much as 432 points. ，the low was 19,174, close to the 20-DMA (19,175) with support, and closed at 19,218, down 388 points 。The HS technology index crossed the 4,000-point mark and closed at 3,961, down 113 points. The main board's full-day turnover was HK$98.1 billion. 

Last Friday (16th), the HSI soared to the 100-DMA (20,096) and fell back. It closed with black candlesticks from Monday to Wednesday. On Wednesday, it fell below the 10-DMA (19,563) and the boundary between bulls and bears i.e. the 250-DMA (19,542), fortunately there is a buying order to undertake at the 20-DMA. U.S. stocks resumed weaker after the holiday. The reduction of LPR in the mainland has widened the gap between China's bond yields and US bond yields, weakening the renminbi and falling below the 7.19 level, the lowest level of the year. The stimulus measures introduced by the Mainland in recent days may not be as strong as market expectations. U.S. Secretary of State Blinken's visit to China was treated coldly by the Chinese side, which did not help improve U.S.-China relations. And as the China and Hong Kong holidays are approaching, funds are expected to enter the market cautiously; the above factors have caused the HSI to repeatedly look for support. 

The HSI has a great chance to fall below the 20-DMA today. In the future market, it will test the low of 18,829 on March 20, and even the low of 18,044 on May 31. The market still hopes that the mainland will continue to introduce favorable policies, and expects that the mainland economy will have a chance to maintain stability in the second half of the year. However, even if there is a rebound, the HSI is also trapped within the range of 20-100 DMA, that is, the range between 19,175 and 20,096. 

European stock markets fell for 4 consecutive trading days, the longest drop since December last year. British and French stocks both closed down more than 0.7%, and German stocks fell 0.22%. 

The Bank of England and the Norges Bank both announced a 0.5% interest rate hike, exceeding market expectations. Federal Reserve Chairman Powell also threatened to raise interest rates twice this year, indicating that the global central bank’s tightening of monetary policy to combat inflation is far from over. Developments in four areas. After the Dow opened 51 points lower, the decline expanded to a maximum of 116 points, reaching a low of 33,835. It recovered most of the lost ground at the close and continued to fall for 4 consecutive days. The S&P and Nasdaq first fell and then recovered. 

U.S. stocks closed: the Dow fell 4 points to 33,946; the S&P 500 index rose 16 points to 4,381; the Nasdaq, which is dominated by technology stocks, turned up 128 points to 13,630. 

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