Investment 20/6/2023

Hong Kong stocks fell yesterday. The HSI opened 56 points lower and fell below the 20,000-point mark. It then continued to find its bottom, falling 321 points  to a low of 19,718 . The HS tech index fell 55 points to 4,178. The market's main board traded at HK$102.9 billion throughout the day. 

Hong Kong stocks fell again, mainly because the mainland introduced rescue measures over the weekend, but no specific plan was released, exacerbating concerns about economic growth. Analyst reports showed that sales performance during the "618" promotion period was weaker than expected, and technology stocks pushed the market lower. Afterwards it was announced that US Secretary of State Antony Blinken would meet with Xi Jinping, and the stock market narrowed its losses. On the first day of the RMB dual counter, among the 24 dual-counter securities, the performance of RMB stocks on the first day was quiet, with a turnover of about 162 million. Only 4 stocks traded over 10 million throughout the day, which did not reach the boost to Hong Kong stocks.

The market is looking forward to a temporary easing of tensions between China and the United States. In addition, the US dollar exchange rate has fallen under the suspension of interest rate hikes by the Federal Reserve, which is also beneficial to the market sentiment. Last week, the momentum of the Hong Kong stock market was like a rainbow, and the Hang Seng Index even surpassed the 20,000 mark under the large turnover. However, due to the holiday factor this week and most of the good news has been reflected, there will inevitably be pressure to take back in the short term. The HSI is expected to have initial resistance at the 100-DMA (20,146). If adjusted again, the 250-DMA (19,556) is an important short-term support. 

In fact, Blinken's trip to China did nothing to improve relations. Unless there are unexpected earth-shaking changes in Chinese politics, improving relations with the United States, Britain, Europe, Japan, and Australia, and introducing more economic stimulus measures, Hong Kong stocks are expected to make further breakthroughs. If so, according to technical analysis: the HSI is currently trending at the top of the Bollinger Band (21,500), which is an important short-term resistance. In terms of shape, it seems to create a compound head and shoulders bottom, with the neckline at 22,850; if the shape is confirmed, based on the low of 14,597 at the end of October last year, there will be an increase of 8,253 points, and the target is 31,103 (?).

Investors worried about the European Central Bank's sharp interest rate hike, and European stocks closed down. 

The US stock market will be closed on Monday (19th) due to Juneteenth (Juneteenth, the Memorial Day for the Emancipation of Black Slaves). 

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