Investment 19/6/2023

The HSI opened 86 points higher, narrowed its gains to 47 points, hit a low of 19,876, then widened its gains to 327 points, hit a high of 20,155, and closed at 20,040, up 211 points, up 631 points in two days, marking the highest level since May 8. Over 20,000 levels. The HS Tech  index closed at 4,233, up 35 points, rising for the sixth day in a row. Turnover soared to more than HK$170 billion , an increase of 44% from the previous day, the most in four and a half months. 

The HSI gained 650 points for the whole week and gained 1,293 points for three consecutive weeks. The HS Tech index gained 299 points for the week. 

Although the HSI has broken through the 20,000-point mark, it still has a lot of resistance from the 100-DMA (20,163) to the May high of 20,300 points. However, if there is another adjustment, the initial support level is 50-DMA(19,709), and the rising 20-DMA (19,166) has stronger support. 

The valuation of Hong Kong stocks is at a relatively low level, and the recent upward trend is mainly due to the successive introduction of mainland policies, including the reduction of the medium-term lending facility (MLF) interest rate and the loan market quotation rate (LPR). Including the relaxation of policies in consumption, infrastructure, and the property market, the market expects that the mainland economy will improve in the third quarter, which has led to a recent rebound in Chinese stocks that had fallen more earlier. Will it be under pressure? The relevant factors may affect the upward momentum of Hong Kong stocks. 

After the exchange rate of the RMB against the US dollar fell below the 7 level, global investment banks have lowered their forecasts for the RMB. The RMB has depreciated nearly 4 percent against the dollar so far this year, making it one of the worst-performing Asian currencies, Reuters reported. 

European stock markets rose across the board, French stocks closed up 1.34% better performance, British stocks and German stocks rose 0.19% and 0.41%. 

The latest consumer inflation expectations in the United States have dropped sharply, but two Fed officials made hawkish remarks again, arguing that the central bank needs to raise interest rates further to deal with high prices. Friday is the "Quadruple witching day" for U.S. stocks, that is, the settlement day for index and individual stock futures and options. About 4.2 trillion US dollars of contracts expire. According to the past, the market conditions on this day are generally more volatile. As a result, U.S. stocks fluctuated on Friday. The market rose first and then fell. After the Dow opened 55 points higher, the increase expanded to 180 points, reaching a high of 34,588, and then fell repeatedly. The S&P once rose 0.51%. The Nasdaq rose 0.59% . All three major indexes closed near their session lows. 

The U.S. stock market closed, with the Dow up 108 points to 34,299; the S&P 500 dropped 16 points to 4,409; the Nasdaq dropped 93 points to 13,689 after losing its 6-day winning streak. 

In terms of the whole week, the S&P index and the Nasdaq have achieved the best week since March, and the S&P index has risen for 5 consecutive weeks, which is the best since November 2021. The Nasdaq rose for eight straight weeks, its longest winning streak since 2019.