Investment 12/6/2023

US stocks closed higher overnight, and Hong Kong stocks opened higher on Friday. The HSI rose 34 points in the early session, and then turned from a rise to a fall, with a maximum drop of 68 points. Near the afternoon market, it rebounded again, reaching a high of 19,463, up 164 points, and closing at 19,389, up 90 points. The market was supported by technology stocks. The HS technology index rose 39 points to close at 3,934. Market turnover was HK$86.6 billion . 

In one week, the HSI rose by 440 points, or 2.32%, for two consecutive weeks; the HS Tech index rose by 110 points, or 2.85%. 

Hong Kong stocks have stabilized in recent days, with the HSI regaining its 20-DMA(19,199) and covering two falling gaps. The trend continued to rise on Friday, but it failed to break through the 19,500 barrier for 3 days in a row, and the transaction has not been matched. The market outlook cannot be too optimistic. Even though the HSI may break through the 250-DMA (19,601) which is the dividing line between the bulls and the bears in the short term, there will be a lot of resistance to the 50-DMA(19,749) to 20,000 points. If there is another substantial adjustment, the rising 10-DMA (18,869) can provide strong support. Unless the mainland introduces rescue measures, it is difficult to reverse the current "stuck" trend of Hong Kong stocks. It is estimated that Hong Kong stocks will rise first and then fall in the second half of the year. The HSI ranges from 18,000 to 21,500 points. The rebound window is mainly concentrated in the third quarter. The Politburo meeting in July and the Third Plenary Session expected to be held in the fall will be important policy observation windows. 

China’s PPI in May fell 4.6% year-on-year, a drop greater than market expectations, falling for 8 months in a row. The economic recovery in the mainland may not be as good as it should be, diluting market optimism, but the market hopes that the mainland will take measures to stimulate the economy at any time. Earlier, the RMB exchange rate hit a record low, which brought selling pressure to Hong Kong stocks. However, global stock markets such as US stocks remained stable at high levels, giving some support to Hong Kong stocks. Recently, as the exchange rate of the US dollar has fallen, it is beneficial to support the stabilization of the RMB ,  and Hong Kong stocks are expected to benefit by then. Investors may wish to pay close attention. 

The number of new jobless claims in the United States exceeded expectations, reflecting a worsening job market. In addition, the CPI data released by the United States this week will also become a key factor affecting the market. If inflation falls faster than expected, it will reduce the room for the Fed to raise interest rates, which will help bond interest rates and the dollar fall, which will help US stocks. 

European stock markets were under pressure last Friday, with British, French and German stock markets falling 0.49%, 0.12% and 0.25% respectively. 

Investors took a wait-and-see attitude as the U.S. released inflation data and the Fed rate meeting this week. U.S. stocks performed well on Friday. The Dow opened slightly higher by 18 points and then climbed up. It rose by as much as 141 points, reaching a high of 33,975; After rising for 11 trading days, the Nasdaq rebounded by 1.11%. 

At the close of the US market, the Dow rose 43 points or 0.13% to 33,876; the S&P 500 rose 5 points to 4,298; the Nasdaq narrowed its gain to 20 points to 13,259. 

Last week, the Dow climbed 0.34%. The S&P rose 0.39%, marking the 4th consecutive week of gains; the S&P closed at 4,293 last Thursday, a cumulative rebound of more than 20% from the low in October last year. The Nasdaq rebounded slightly by 0.14%, marking its seventh consecutive week of gains. 

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